Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Snap-on (SNA)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$366.44-0.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
21.30 → 20.44 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SNA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital spending about $100 million | The company invests about $100 million annually in capital spending. | Intact | CAPEX falls below $90 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $24.7M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX >= $100 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202624,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a mature industrial business with a multi-year thesis tied to growth in automotive repair and critical industries. The thesis is currently intact, though management delivery is mixed and recent results have weakened momentum.
SNA is described as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and low fragility in the priced-in assessment. That points to modest market expectations, but the evidence does not show that the valuation alone resolves the execution concerns.
Near term, recent results suggest pressure: Q3 sales declined 0.6%, organic sales fell 2.8%, and operating earnings were lower than a year earlier. Commercial & Industrial sales grew, but ongoing earnings misses and weaker company momentum make the next guidance update important.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether growth in automotive repair and critical industries can improve overall organic sales and management can deliver better results from its customer, innovation, and value-creation priorities. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength among industrial bellwethers would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, SNA has peer-relative valuation support and an intact thesis, but subdued results and uneven execution keep the outlook uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Snap-on's published investment case. The stated target is M&A deals contribute positively to revenue growth. |
| Intact |
| M&A fails to add revenue or causes integration issues |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 22% | Profit margins stay near 22%. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 20% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Snap-on revenue growth | A primary condition in Snap-on's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -0.74% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 2026-0.743092 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.22 → $20.44 · observed estimates
$5.14B → $5.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $21.22 | $5,144,082,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $21.22 | $5,144,082,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $21.19 | $5,152,432,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $21.19 | $5,152,432,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.19 | $5,152,432,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $21.19 | $5,152,432,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $21.23 | $5,152,432,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.23 | $5,152,432,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.23 | $5,152,432,188 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $21.34 | $5,182,120,857 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $21.34 | $5,182,078,000 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $21.30 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $21.25 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $21.25 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $21.25 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $21.25 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $21.25 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $21.25 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $21.25 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $21.25 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $21.25 | $5,171,055,160 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $21.24 | $5,168,311,535 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $21.24 | $5,168,311,535 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $21.24 | $5,168,311,535 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $21.24 | $5,168,311,535 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $21.24 | $5,168,311,535 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $21.24 | $5,168,311,535 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $21.24 | $5,168,311,535 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $21.24 | $5,168,311,535 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $20.90 | $5,122,754,535 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $20.66 | $5,087,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $20.66 | $5,087,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $20.66 | $5,087,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $20.66 | $5,087,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $20.44 | $5,045,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $20.44 | $5,045,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $20.44 | $5,045,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $20.44 | $5,045,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $20.44 | $5,045,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $20.44 | $5,045,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $20.44 | $5,045,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $20.44 | $5,045,823,208 | 9 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.