Snap-on (SNA)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$383.00-0.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SNA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
SNA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, Snap-on Incorporated (the “Corporation”) issued a press release announcing results for its first quarter ended April 4, 2026. The text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The press release contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results of the Corporation to differ materially from those described in any forward-looking statement…
Why it matters: Hitting the $100 million CAPEX target is key for growth and better operations.
Supportive ifCAPEX data shows progress toward the $100 million target.
Worry ifCAPEX data shows spending is much lower than $100 million.
Why it matters: A higher tax rate can lower net earnings and hurt profits.
Worry ifEffective tax rate reported above 23% for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifEffective tax rate reported within the 22% to 23% range for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: This measure shows Snap-on's ability to grow in key markets. A drop below 3% may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth in key industries is above 3% for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifOrganic sales growth in key industries is below 3%.
Why it matters: A drop in financial services revenue shows less demand for financing.
Worry ifIn Q3, financial services revenue was less than $100 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 financial services revenue was at or above $100 million.
Why it matters: Keeping CAPEX at this level shows strong capital management. It impacts future growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement confirms CAPEX is maintained at $100 million in the next earnings call.
Worry ifCAPEX is reported below $90 million in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A gross margin below 50.0% may mean higher costs or pricing issues, hurting profits.
Worry ifQ2 gross margin reported below 50.0%.
Less concerning ifQ2 gross margin reported above 50.0%.
Why it matters: Snap-on's organic sales growth shows its strength in key industries and repair shops.
Supportive ifQ3 organic sales growth was above 3%.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth was below 3%.
Why it matters: A steady tax rate shows good financial management and helps earnings stay stable.
Supportive ifEffective income tax rate reported between 22% and 23%.
Worry ifEffective income tax rate reported outside the range of 22% to 23%.
Why it matters: A strong earnings report would reinforce Snap-on's growth story and market position.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $4.96.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $4.96.
Why it matters: Spending on capital helps a company grow. It also makes operations better.
Supportive ifCapital spending was close to $100 million for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending was well below $100 million for 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $186 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $923 loss on $10,000 · 9.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.