SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.22-1.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve 60 cents EPS in fiscal 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $0.60 vs $0.60 target.
SoFi aims for $4.655 billion revenue and $825 million net income in 2026. EPS target is 60 cents per share. The company launched SoFi Coach to support growth. Analysts expect about 13% revenue growth.
Revenue growth is currently weak, with Q1 2026 revenue slightly down from 2024. Achieving full-year targets requires strong acceleration. Profit margins and cash flow remain fragile. Valuation is high with elevated risk.
The price is about 12% above our fair value near $16 and 17% below the Street median near $19. Analysts expect 13% revenue growth, which aligns with management targets. Our view is cautious given mixed progress and high valuation.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.40 in FY26
Breaks if: Net income falls below $600M in FY26
Breaks if: No meaningful user adoption or revenue contribution from SoFi Coach within 12 months
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
SOFI represents a speculative growth investment. The current thesis state has weakened due to recent financial performance dropping significantly within its industry, raising concerns about its execution quality.
The market currently prices SOFI at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting a durable premium. However, this premium may not fully account for the fragility in its earnings quality and recent performance issues.
Management has set ambitious targets for adjusted net revenue, net income, and earnings per share, all of which are on track based on recent growth rates. However, the overall financial performance has been weak, which could impact future results.
Key factors for SOFI's future include the performance of major sector players like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express, which could influence market sentiment. Additionally, any negative revisions to guidance could harm SOFI's credibility and stock performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change means the reason to own it has weakened. Piper Sandler projected a 22% revenue growth rate from 2026 to 2028. They also expect a 27% adjusted EBITDA growth rate during the same period. This new information provides a specific growth expectation for SoFi.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $4.0B in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, SOFI's outlook is uncertain due to its fragile earnings quality and recent performance issues. Monitoring sector trends and management execution will be crucial. Not investment advice.