SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.22-1.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SOFI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
SOFI — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-29
is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings.
Why it matters: A decline in product growth could signal reduced engagement from existing members. This could affect revenue streams.
Worry ifProduct growth reported below 35% year over year.
Less concerning ifProduct growth reported at or above 35% year over year.
Why it matters: EPS is important for reaching the 60 cents target for 2026.
Worry ifQ2 EPS reported below 0.15.
Less concerning ifQ2 EPS reported at or above 0.15.
Why it matters: Adjusted net income was $160 million in Q2. Meeting this target shows strong profitability.
Supportive ifSoFi reports adjusted net income of $200 million or more in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted net income falls below $150 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Management raised 2026 adjusted net revenue guidance to $4.75B to $4.85B. This shows confidence in growth.
Supportive ifManagement says Q3 adjusted net revenue will be over $1.2 billion.
Worry ifManagement says Q3 adjusted net revenue will be under $1.2 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$252 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $626 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,296 loss on $10,000 · 53.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Achieving this growth rate is key to hitting the $4.655B revenue target for 2026. It shows SoFi's ability to maintain momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 30% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: SoFi aims for $4.75B to $4.85B adjusted net revenue in 2026. A miss signals trouble.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue grew less than 32% from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted net revenue growth at or above 32% year-over-year.
Why it matters: SoFi targets approximately $825 million adjusted net income in 2026. A miss would raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted net income below $200 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted net income at or above $200 million.
Why it matters: SoFi added 1.1 million members in Q2. Sustained growth shows strong engagement and trust.
Supportive ifSoFi reports member growth exceeding 1 million in Q3.
Worry ifMember growth falls below 800,000 in Q3.
Why it matters: Net income is key to achieving the $825M target for 2026.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported below $200M.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income reported at or above $200M.
Why it matters: Achieving this EPS target would signal strong earnings growth and operational success. It is important for market perception.
Supportive ifEPS of 60 cents or more reported for the full year 2026.
Worry ifEPS remains below 40 cents for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: If sector growth drops, it may mean bigger problems for SoFi's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains at or above its median.
Why it matters: SoFi achieved $14.8 billion in Q2. Continued growth indicates strong demand for loans.
Supportive ifSoFi says it made over $15 billion in loans in Q3.
Worry ifLoan originations fall below $12 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: SoFi's growth depends on adding members. Slower growth may indicate market challenges.
Worry ifMember growth was less than 30% from last year.
Less concerning ifMember growth at or above 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Loan originations are key to SoFi's revenue. A drop may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifIn Q3, total loan originations were less than $14 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 total loan originations at or above $14 billion.