Terex (TEX)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.23+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Terex improves operating income from Q1 2026 loss: FY26 EPS guide $4.7-$5.1 (positive) vs target positive operating income.
Terex grew revenue 41% year over year in Q1 2026, showing strong demand. The company aims for about $7.85 billion in revenue in 2026. Profit margins and free cash flow targets are stable, supporting earnings near $4.75 per share. The recent acquisition and stable dividend show management commitment.
Terex cut its 2024 sales and earnings outlook due to weak demand, signaling risk. Operating income fell sharply from $137 million to a loss of $82 million in Q1 2026. The recent selloff and guidance cut show challenges in sustaining growth and margins.
The stock trades about 10% below our fair value near $74, reflecting roughly 28% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 12% below the Street median, indicating some caution. The market prices in strong growth but also recent demand weakness.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.17
Breaks if: free cash flow margin falls below 0.3% in FY26
operating income remains negative through FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with elements of growth. The current thesis state indicates a cautious watch as the company works through integration and performance challenges.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, suggesting that expectations are somewhat muted. TEX is seen as cheap compared to peers, but there is a notable expectations gap that reflects uncertainty.
Management is on track with key priorities, including merger integration and revenue growth. Recent financial performance has shown some improvement, but overall quality metrics have declined, indicating a need for continued focus.
The future performance of TEX hinges on the successful integration of the REV merger and the ability to sustain revenue growth. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial in determining the broader industrial momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The recent earnings beat and focus on revenue growth support the thesis. However, a sharp drop in the stock price may indicate a repricing of the thesis. This suggests that market concerns are growing despite the positive earnings performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: annual revenue falls below $7.5 billion in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, TEX's trajectory will depend on execution and sector trends. Not investment advice.