Terex (TEX)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.23+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 19.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
TEX — officer change
Dated 2026-06-30
The excerpt is incomplete and does not provide sufficient information to determine the nature of the event.
Why it matters: Better margins in the MP segment show improved cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifMP segment EBITDA margin will rise above 15% in the next quarters.
Worry ifMP segment EBITDA margin declines or stays below 13%.
Why it matters: Better sector performance may help Terex grow. It shows a stronger industrial environment.
Supportive ifSector growth rate improves to above 5% in Q2.
Worry ifSector growth rate declines further below -1% in Q2.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS shows Terex is managing costs well post-merger. It would signal strong operational performance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS reported at or above $1.12, consistent with prior performance.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS was below $1.12. This shows possible operational problems.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows good execution and demand. This helps Terex's growth plans.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is over 10% from last year. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 5% from last year. This may show problems in execution or demand.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$208 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $447 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,829 loss on $10,000 · 28.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This review could change Terex's market position. It may also affect shareholder value.
Watch forManagement shares good news from the review. This news increases shareholder value.
Also watch forManagement says there is little interest from buyers or they will keep the Aerials business.
Why it matters: A backlog under $7 billion may show weaker orders and future sales.
Worry ifBacklog reported below $7 billion at the end of Q2.
Less concerning ifBacklog reported above $7 billion at the end of Q2.
Why it matters: Better EBITDA margins mean better cost control and efficiency. This can lead to higher profits.
Supportive ifQuarterly EBITDA margin rises by over 50 basis points from the last quarter.
Worry ifQuarterly EBITDA margin falls or stays the same compared to the last quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the Aerials business may lead to changes that affect company value.
Watch forTerex shares the results of the review for the Aerials business.
Also watch forNo updates or progress on the strategic review of the Aerials business.
Why it matters: These synergies help the company make more money. They also improve profit margins.
Supportive ifThey announced $28 million in synergies by the end of 2026.
Worry ifFailure to achieve $28 million in synergies by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong demand and good order management. This helps future revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 backlog was above $7.1 billion. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifQ2 2026 backlog was below $7.1 billion. This suggests weaker demand.
Why it matters: Achieving the $28 million synergy target in 2026 is crucial for growth. This will show the merger is benefiting Terex financially.
Supportive ifManagement says they will achieve $28 million in synergies for 2026 in upcoming calls.
Worry ifThere is no mention of synergies or delays in the integration process.
Why it matters: Earnings per share shows how well Terex is doing financially.
Worry ifQ2 EPS reported below $4.50.
Less concerning ifQ2 EPS reported at or above $4.50.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Terex's financial health. A drop below 5% signals trouble.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth comes in at less than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show good financial health. They also help build trust with investors.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.17 in Q2.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.17 in Q2.
Why it matters: Demand for utility vehicles is set to grow. This will affect Terex's revenue and market position.
Supportive ifSales in the utilities segment rise over 15% compared to last year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifUtilities segment sales fall or grow less than 5% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows Terex is managing costs better. This is key for long-term health.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to at least $20M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative or goes down more in Q2.