Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Triumph Bancorp, Inc. (TFIN)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.90+2.75%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.19 → 3.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TFIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS growth to at least $2.78 in FY27 | A primary condition in Triumph Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.78 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.78 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $0.52 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.78 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 21, 20260.52 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TFIN is a growth-oriented financial business, with transportation revenue growth and customer additions supporting its multi-year view. The thesis is intact, though recent momentum weakened after an earnings miss and management’s efficiency target remains unproven.
TFIN is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium reflected in its valuation. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions may be demanding; the evidence does not show that the premium is fragile.
Near term, the latest quarter’s miss and a run of consecutive misses are risks, though the estimated miss probability is described as low. Over the multi-year view, transportation revenue growth and new customer additions show progress, while the 2027 expense ceiling still requires savings that have not yet been demonstrated.
The next guidance update is a key near-term test, since a cut would weaken the thesis. Rate changes and results from sector peers may also shape the backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the central question is whether transportation growth and customer expansion can continue alongside meaningful expense control.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact but has less recent momentum, and the expensive valuation leaves limited room for weak execution. The main evidence to watch is guidance, continued growth, and delivery on the efficiency target. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Triumph Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% QoQ growth. |
| Intact |
| Payments revenue growth falls below 5% QoQ in Q1 FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue growth at or above 11% annually | A primary condition in Triumph Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=11.6% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 11% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 19.85% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11.6% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 21, 202619.854966 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.85 → $3.51 · observed estimates
$0.51B → $0.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.85 | $507,825,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.11 | $521,763,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.11 | $519,706,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.11 | $521,763,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.11 | $521,763,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.11 | $521,763,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.11 | $521,763,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.16 | $524,683,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.16 | $524,683,599 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.15 | $523,958,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.15 | $523,958,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.15 | $523,958,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.15 | $523,958,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.15 | $523,958,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.15 | $523,958,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.19 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.19 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.19 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.19 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.19 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.19 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.28 | $523,878,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.45 | $529,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.45 | $529,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.45 | $529,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.45 | $529,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.45 | $529,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.51 | $529,664,999 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.51 | $529,664,999 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.51 | $529,664,999 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.51 | $529,664,999 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.51 | $529,664,999 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.51 | $529,664,999 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.51 | $529,664,999 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.51 | $529,664,999 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.