Triumph Bancorp, Inc. (TFIN)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$69.60+1.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TFIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 71.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
TFIN — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-31
Other Events On August 31, 2026, Triumph Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the board of directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend on its 7.125% Series C Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock (the “Series C Preferred Stock”) of $17.81 per share (equivalent to $0.44525 per depositary share representing a 1/40 interest in a share of Series C Preferred Stock). Such dividend is payable September 30, 2026, to shareholders of recor…
Why it matters: Average invoice prices impact Triumph's earnings. If they fall below $2,200, it could hurt profits.
Worry ifAverage invoice prices were below $2,200.
Less concerning ifAverage invoice prices were at or above $2,200.
Why it matters: This growth is part of management's strategy to improve overall revenue. It indicates success in the Payments segment.
Supportive ifPayments revenue growth exceeds 5% in Q3.
Worry ifPayments revenue growth is below 5% in Q3.
Why it matters: The Payments segment's margin is important for making money. If it drops below 40%, it may show problems.
Worry ifPayments EBITDA margin was below 40% in Q3.
Less concerning ifPayments EBITDA margin reported at or above 40% for Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping expenses in check is key for margins. Higher costs could hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 expenses reported at $99 million or lower.
Less concerning ifQ3 expenses were over $99 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $405 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,664 loss on $10,000 · 26.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key management priority. It shows if Triumph is on track to meet its targets.
Supportive ifTransportation revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifTransportation revenue growth falls below 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: LoadPay is crucial for future revenue. Slower growth could indicate challenges in adoption or market conditions.
Worry ifLoadPay accounts growth reported at 120% or higher for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifLoadPay accounts growth reported below 120% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This margin shows strong efficiency in the factoring part of the business.
Supportive ifQ2 factoring margin is over 40%.
Worry ifQ2 factoring margin is under 34%.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin is important for making money. It shows how well the Intelligence segment works.
Supportive ifIntelligence segment gross margin remains above 85% in Q3.
Worry ifIntelligence segment gross margin drops below 85% in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping expenses low is important for making money. It shows Triumph cares about being efficient.
Supportive ifQuarterly expenses remain at or below $96.5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifQuarterly expenses go over $99 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may mean bigger economic problems for the company.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its historical median of 12%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is still higher than its average from the past.