Triumph Bancorp, Inc. (TFIN)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.90+2.75%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TFIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TFIN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 21, 2026, Triumph Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its letter to shareholders attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Exhibit 99.1 includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is included as a table in the letter to shareholders. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, s…
Why it matters: Q3 growth was 37.8%, above the long-term target. A sharp slowdown would weaken the case that the platform can turn growth into earnings.
Watch forReported transportation revenue growth stays above 15% year over year in Q4.
Also watch forReported transportation revenue growth falls to 15% or less year over year in Q4.
Why it matters: LoadPay revenue grew 21.3% from the prior quarter, while Payments margins remain below the long-term goal. Higher margins would show growth is adding profit.
Supportive ifLoadPay revenue grows again from Q3. Payments EBITDA margin, including LoadPay, rises from the Q3 level.
Worry ifLoadPay revenue falls from Q3, or Payments EBITDA margin, including LoadPay, falls in the next report.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $354 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,601 loss on $10,000 · 26.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.