TKO Group Holdings (TKO)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
$193.53+0.64%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track TKO free→A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. Slower and deeper than the daily snapshot — it refreshes only when the evidence moves.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on achieving specific revenue and EBITDA targets. The current thesis state is intact, although there are risks due to recent earnings misses.
The market currently prices TKO at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation despite recent performance declines. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential volatility in earnings.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and EBITDA targets for 2026, which is a positive sign. However, there is an elevated risk of an earnings miss in the near term, as the company has struggled with consecutive misses recently.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for TKO. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact TKO's momentum.
Overall, TKO's fundamentals show promise, but the company must navigate near-term risks and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss is a significant concern. This miss raises doubts about the company's performance and future outlook.
as of 2026-07-07
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue target supports the goal of $5.675B to $5.775B for 2026.
Confirms:Q2 revenue results reported on August 5, 2026, meet or exceed $1.4B.
Disproves:Q2 revenue results fall below $1.4B.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth indicates TKO is on track to meet its annual revenue target. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth of 25% or more compared to the previous year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving the margin shows good efficiency and profit.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin stays above 34% in Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin drops below 32% in Q2.
Why it matters: If EBITDA goes above this number, it shows good performance. It also helps meet the full-year EBITDA goal.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 is over $600 million.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 falls below $550 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback may show that management believes in TKO's future. It may help the share price.
Confirms:They announced the $1 billion share buyback is complete.
Disproves:No announcement of completion by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing this buyback shows good use of money. It also shows trust in the company's worth.
Confirms:Completion of the $800 million share repurchase agreement by the end of June 2026.
Disproves:Failure to complete the share repurchase by the end of June 2026.
Why it matters: Changes to guidance may show shifts in business outlook and affect investor feelings.
Confirms one read:Management confirms or raises guidance for the full year during the earnings call.
Confirms the other:Management lowers guidance for the full year during the earnings call.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow from operations shows the business is doing well. It can also support growth plans.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations in Q2 exceeds $700 million.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations in Q2 falls below $600 million.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback program impacts how money is spent. It also affects how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Management announces completion of at least $400M of the $800M share repurchase.
Confirms the other:No updates or delays in the share repurchase program.