Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TKO Group Holdings (TKO)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$189.14-2.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.47 → 5.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TKO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA between $2.240B and $2.290B in 2026 | Profit (Adjusted EBITDA) is rising, targeting $2.24 billion to $2.29 billion. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.240 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TKO is a growth-oriented business with robust earnings quality and stable management. Its multi-year thesis is intact, though the signal has recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 19% premium, and the evidence labels expectations as stretched. The expectations gap is aligned, but confidence in that measure is low and the overall valuation signal is not definitive.
Near-term results show strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, with both first-half measures above the prior-year period, and management’s 2026 targets are on track. However, recent earnings misses and elevated risk of another next-quarter miss are important risks; a reversal of recently raised guidance would also hurt management credibility.
The multi-year view hinges on TKO delivering its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA targets while maintaining execution. Near-term conditions could improve if interest rates ease or major Communication Services peers continue to report strong results, while guidance cuts or further earnings misses would weaken the case.
TKO’s operating progress supports an intact 1-to-3-year thesis, but expensive valuation and near-term earnings uncertainty make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in TKO Group Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.675 billion. |
| Intact |
| Annual revenue falls below $5.675 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: $1.36B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.675 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261,360,155,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $2.0 billion share repurchase program within 3-4 years | A supporting condition in TKO Group Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Complete $2.0 billion repurchase by 2028-2029. | Intact | Share repurchases stall and fail to reach $2.0 billion within 4 years | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Other Matters Return of Capital Program The Company announced that it intends to commence additional repurchases of its outstanding Class A common stock under its existing share repurchase program.” “Other Matters Return of Capital Program The Company announced that it intends to commence additional repurchases of its outstanding Class A common stock under its existing share repurchase program.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.92 → $5.71 · observed estimates
$5.82B → $5.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.92 | $5,823,646,040 | 11 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.92 | $5,823,436,040 | 11 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.92 | $5,823,436,040 | 11 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.92 | $5,823,436,040 | 11 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.29 | $5,834,781,521 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.29 | $5,834,781,521 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.26 | $5,832,390,482 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.95 | $5,843,791,240 | 8 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.26 | $5,832,390,482 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.95 | $5,843,791,240 | 8 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.26 | $5,832,390,482 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.26 | $5,832,438,101 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.95 | $5,843,843,870 | 8 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.26 | $5,832,438,101 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.92 | $5,872,813,620 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.47 | $5,872,247,224 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.47 | $5,874,704,367 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.47 | $5,874,609,129 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.47 | $5,874,609,129 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.47 | $5,874,609,129 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.47 | $5,874,609,129 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.47 | $5,874,609,129 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.47 | $5,874,609,129 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.47 | $5,874,590,081 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.47 | $5,874,590,081 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.47 | $5,874,670,245 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.47 | $5,874,670,245 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.47 | $5,874,670,245 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.47 | $5,874,670,245 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.47 | $5,874,670,245 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.47 | $5,874,670,245 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.47 | $5,874,670,245 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.47 | $5,874,670,245 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.47 | $5,876,622,626 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.47 | $5,876,622,626 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.47 | $5,876,622,626 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.47 | $5,876,622,626 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.47 | $5,876,622,626 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.47 | $5,876,622,626 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.47 | $5,876,622,626 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.46 | $5,873,977,512 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.46 | $5,873,977,512 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.46 | $5,873,977,512 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.46 | $5,873,977,512 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.46 | $5,873,977,512 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.46 | $5,878,830,797 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.46 | $5,879,326,035 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.46 | $5,879,326,035 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.46 | $5,881,795,832 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.46 | $5,881,795,832 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.46 | $5,881,795,832 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.46 | $5,880,700,594 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.45 | $5,879,877,437 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.45 | $5,879,877,437 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.45 | $5,879,877,437 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.45 | $5,879,877,437 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.45 | $5,879,877,437 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.45 | $5,879,877,437 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.71 | $5,881,978,189 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.71 | $5,881,978,189 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.71 | $5,881,978,189 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.71 | $5,881,963,903 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.71 | $5,881,963,903 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.71 | $5,881,963,903 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.71 | $5,881,678,189 | 7 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.71 | $5,881,678,189 | 7 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.