TKO Group Holdings (TKO)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
$193.53+0.64%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $193.53. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $194, TKO's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 7.4× p/s (4.5× the 1.7× p/s peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~13% near-term growth vs our ~10% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $172 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $225–$240. Note: our $172 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($225–$240). Not investment advice.
$225.00 – $240.00 (median $228.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 323% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 34.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.37/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $228.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $387.64 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $407.20 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $40.25 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $74.64 | 11.0 | 8.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $207.35 | 23.8 | 8.71 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $129.47 | 78.5 | 1.65 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $43.40 | 1.7 | 26.01 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $36.00 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $124.42 | 75.4 | 1.65 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $120.91 | 78.5 | 1.54 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $315.35 | 23.8 | 13.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $60.36 | 1.7 | 36.18 | guidance | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $417.05 | 23.8 | 17.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $76.90 | 1.7 | 46.10 | guidance | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.