TKO Group Holdings (TKO)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$186.01-1.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TKO
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $186 TKO trades at 78× p/e — 1.3× the 59× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $153 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $210–$235. Note: our $153 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($210–$235). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $179, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $230.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1299.39 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $76.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $149.46 | 8.1 | 23.45 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$210.00 – $235.00 (median $230.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-08-04
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 3% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 1.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.47/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $380.15 |
| 17.2 |
| 22.04 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $141.09 | 59.3 | 2.38 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $106.47 | 1.5 | 69.88 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $38.64 | 16.2 | 2.38 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $83.75 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $137.28 | 59.3 | 2.32 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $578.16 | 17.2 | 33.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $369.94 | 59.3 | 6.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $134.52 | 1.5 | 88.30 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $101.32 | 16.2 | 6.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $764.62 | 17.2 | 44.34 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $429.83 | 59.3 | 7.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $156.31 | 1.5 | 102.59 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $117.73 | 16.2 | 7.25 | Analyst | medium |