TKO Group Holdings (TKO)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$193.48+3.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TKO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TKO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 3, 2026, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2026. In addition, the Company provided supplemental financial information based on the historical information of the Company for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025 to retrospectively reflect the acquisition of Professional Bull Riders, On Location, and certain businesses operating under the IMG…
Why it matters: WWE live event and hospitality revenue fell 18% in Q2. TKO tied most of the drop to WrestleMania 42 ticket sales.
Watch forQ3 WWE live event and hospitality revenue is above $152.0M, with higher ticket sales than Q2.
Also watch forQ3 WWE live event and hospitality revenue is at or below $152.0M, with ticket sales still weak.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA rose 27% in the first half. A third-quarter result can test if that pace supports the higher full-year range.
Supportive ifOn November 4, TKO reports Q3 Adjusted EBITDA above Q3 2025 and keeps its $2.275B–$2.305B 2026 target.
Worry ifOn November 4, TKO reports Q3 Adjusted EBITDA below Q3 2025 or cuts its 2026 target.
Why it matters: UFC's second-quarter margin fell to 52% from 59%. TKO said Freedom 250 drove the drop, so the next quarter tests that explanation.
Supportive ifQ3 UFC Adjusted EBITDA margin rises above 52% as event costs ease.
Worry ifQ3 UFC Adjusted EBITDA margin stays at or below 52%, despite no Freedom 250 event in the quarter.
Why it matters: World Cup hospitality sales drove much of IMG's first-half growth. Results after the event can show whether the lift came with stronger earnings.
Watch forQ3 IMG Adjusted EBITDA is above $78.6M. Management ties the gain to World Cup hospitality sales.
Also watch forQ3 IMG Adjusted EBITDA is below $78.6M. Management ties the drop to World Cup costs or weaker hospitality sales.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $312 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,359 loss on $10,000 · 23.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: TKO raised its 2026 revenue range in August. Q3 results will show whether growth stays on that path.
Supportive ifOn November 4, TKO reports Q3 revenue growth and keeps its $5.775B–$5.825B 2026 target.
Worry ifOn November 4, TKO cuts its 2026 revenue target or reports Q3 revenue below Q3 2025.