TKO Group Holdings (TKO)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$186.01-1.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TKO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TKO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 3, 2026, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2026. In addition, the Company provided supplemental financial information based on the historical information of the Company for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025 to retrospectively reflect the acquisition of Professional Bull Riders, On Location, and certain businesses operating under the IMG…
Why it matters: Completing the share buyback shows TKO cares about returning money to shareholders. This can raise stock price.
Supportive ifThe company completes the $1 billion share repurchase program by the end of Q3.
Worry ifThe company delays or reduces the share repurchase plan.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into TKO's financial health and progress toward its goals. Investors will react to the results.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EBITDA growth in line with guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows big misses on revenue or EBITDA goals.
Why it matters: Changes to guidance may show shifts in business outlook and affect investor feelings.
Watch forManagement confirms or raises guidance for the full year during the earnings call.
Also watch forManagement lowers guidance for the full year during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue target supports the goal of $5.675B to $5.775B for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue results reported on August 5, 2026, meet or exceed $1.4B.
Worry ifQ2 revenue results fall below $1.4B.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $331 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,993 loss on $10,000 · 19.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this plan would show strong confidence in TKO's finances and value for shareholders.
Supportive ifTKO announced the completion of the $1 billion share repurchase plan.
Worry ifNo announcement of completion by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A stable margin shows TKO is controlling costs while increasing revenue. This helps long-term profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 40% for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 35% for Q3.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow from operations shows the business is doing well. It can also support growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations in Q2 exceeds $700 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations in Q2 falls below $600 million.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback program impacts how money is spent. It also affects how investors feel.
Watch forManagement announces completion of at least $400M of the $800M share repurchase.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Going above this threshold shows strong profits. It helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $300 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $250 million.
Why it matters: Adjusting guidance shows how well TKO is handling growth and challenges.
Watch forManagement says Q3 revenue will be between $5.775 billion and $5.825 billion.
Also watch forManagement cuts Q3 revenue guidance to less than $5.775 billion.
Why it matters: High legal costs can hurt profits and investor feelings. Keeping an eye on this shows financial health.
Worry ifLegal costs related to WWE litigation exceed $50 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifLegal costs remain below $20 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A better sector could help TKO's performance and improve investor feelings.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive in Q3 2026.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The FIFA World Cup will significantly impact TKO's revenue and growth potential.
Supportive ifRevenue from FIFA World Cup activities is over $200 million.
Worry ifRevenue from FIFA World Cup activities is below $100 million.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth rate supports TKO's full year revenue target. It shows strong demand in their segments.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 18% YoY or better, confirming strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is under 10% compared to last year. This shows possible demand issues.
Why it matters: Going above this number would show strong profits. It would help meet the full year Adjusted EBITDA goal.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is over $600 million. This shows strong performance in operations.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $500 million. This may mean there are issues in operations.
Why it matters: Strong growth in the IMG segment would help the company grow. It would support integration success.
Supportive ifIMG segment revenue growth is over 15% compared to last year in Q3. This shows successful integration.
Worry ifIMG segment revenue growth is under 5% compared to last year. This shows integration challenges.
Why it matters: Finishing this program would show strong commitment to returning capital. It would show confidence in TKO's value.
Supportive ifCompletion of the $1 billion share repurchase program by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDelays or cuts in the share buyback program show possible cash flow concerns.