T-Mobile US (TMUS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$181.52-3.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
T-Mobile grows service revenue 11% yearly to $18.8 billion. It plans $18.2 billion in stock returns by end 2026. Capital spending stays near $10 billion. The company invests in AI and new ventures to grow.
Merger talks with Deutsche Telekom may disrupt T-Mobile's plans. Legal issues with Verizon could hurt marketing. Competition from Verizon remains strong and may slow growth.
The price is about 4% above our fair value near $179. Analysts expect 6% revenue growth, which matches our view. Our fair value is 31% below the Street median, so the market may be optimistic.
Breaks if: CAPEX deviates more than 10% from $10 billion in FY26
Breaks if: YoY service revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26
Breaks if: Total shareholder returns fall short of $18 billion by end 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in the communication services sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite some volatility in management and sector headwinds.
The valuation is currently aligned with peers, showing a slight premium. The market seems to expect stable performance, with a low expectations gap suggesting that TMUS is not overly priced for future growth.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with priorities like postpaid account growth and network leadership. However, there is a moderate risk due to the broader sector backdrop, which could affect performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like VZ, T, and CMCSA. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for TMUS. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose a risk.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis of strong financial growth. However, Elliott Investment Management's opposition to a potential merger reduces the likelihood of that deal. This could impact future expectations for the company.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, TMUS appears to be well-positioned for the next few years, but it must navigate sector challenges and maintain management credibility. Not investment advice.