T-Mobile US (TMUS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$181.52-3.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMUS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
TMUS — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-03
CFO — Peter Osvaldik: The CFO is retiring with a named successor (Jessica Uhl) already identified and starting as CFO Designate, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The buyback shows T-Mobile's commitment to returning cash to shareholders. It can boost share prices if executed well.
Supportive ifT-Mobile announces completion of at least $1 billion in share buybacks by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo significant buybacks reported by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in ARPA may show problems in making money from customers.
Worry ifPostpaid ARPA decline reported greater than $1.50 in Q3.
Less concerning ifPostpaid ARPA decline reported less than $1.50 in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in capital spending can impact growth and cash flow. Investors watch this closely.
Watch forManagement plans to spend over $10 billion in 2026.
Also watch forManagement plans to spend less than $8 billion in 2026.
Why it matters: If this level drops, it shows weaker profits and less efficiency.
Worry ifCore Adjusted EBITDA is at $9.5 billion or more.
Less concerning ifCore Adjusted EBITDA is less than $9.5 billion.
Why it matters: Higher costs may show problems with integration. This can affect T-Mobile's profits.
Worry ifIntegration costs in Q3 exceed $100 million.
Less concerning ifIntegration costs in Q3 are $100 million or lower.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, cash flow may weaken. This affects financial health.
Worry ifAdjusted Free Cash Flow reported below $18.4 billion for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted Free Cash Flow reported above $18.8 billion for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More buybacks or dividends would show good use of money and trust in cash flow.
Supportive ifWatch for news about buybacks or dividends from the $18.2 billion return program.
Worry ifNo big buybacks or dividends were announced, even with the bigger return program.
Why it matters: Higher costs may mean issues with T-Mobile's digital changes, which could hurt profits.
Worry ifCosts for digital transformation go over $350 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCosts for digital transformation stay at or below $350 million in Q3.
Why it matters: This number is critical to gauge if T-Mobile can maintain its growth momentum. A drop below this level may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifPostpaid net account additions fall below 950,000 in Q3.
Less concerning ifPostpaid net account additions meet or exceed 1,050,000 in Q3.
Why it matters: Service revenue shows how well T-Mobile is doing financially. If it falls below this level, it may mean trouble keeping or gaining customers.
Worry ifIn Q3, service revenues were less than $19 billion.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, service revenues were more than $19 billion.
Why it matters: Postpaid ARPA growth is important for revenue. A slowdown may mean pricing issues or unhappy customers.
Worry ifPostpaid ARPA growth rate drops below 2% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifPostpaid ARPA growth rate remains at or above 3% year-over-year.
Why it matters: More benefits from the UScellular deal could help T-Mobile make more money and compete better.
Supportive ifT-Mobile reports that UScellular will save more than $1.2 billion each year.
Worry ifT-Mobile lowers the synergy goal to less than $1 billion.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $312 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,300 loss on $10,000 · 33.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.