T-Mobile US (TMUS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$159.17+3.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMUS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TMUS — Chair transition
Dated 2026-10-28
Vice Chair — G. Michael Sievert: The Vice Chair of the Board and Company is resigning from all positions, which constitutes a significant executive departure, though the filing notes no disagreement with the company.
Why it matters: Q3 postpaid account churn rose to 1.09%, from 0.97% a year ago. A further rise could weaken account growth.
Worry ifPostpaid account churn tops 1.09% in a later quarter.
Less concerning ifPostpaid account churn falls to 1.09% or less in a later quarter.
Why it matters: Vice Chair G. Michael Sievert left all company and board roles. Watch for a named successor or a change in board leadership.
Watch forA company filing names a successor or confirms a stable board chair plan.
Also watch forA company filing says a chair role is open or another board leader has left.
Why it matters: Management kept its full-year goal near 1.0 million after Q3 additions of 274,000. This tests customer growth.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 postpaid net account adds reach about 1.0 million, within the 950,000 to 1.05 million range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 postpaid net account adds fall below 950,000.
Why it matters: T-Mobile raised its free cash flow range in Q3. The year-end result will test that higher cash goal.
Supportive if2026 adjusted free cash flow is at least $18.7 billion, the bottom of the new range.
Worry if2026 adjusted free cash flow is below $18.7 billion.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $329 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,386 loss on $10,000 · 33.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.