Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$362.42-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 219.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 201.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TPL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-05-06
Director — Peter Doyle: Appointment of Peter Doyle as a new Director and his involvement in the strategic acquisitions committee.
Why it matters: Beating this revenue target shows better performance and market demand. It shows management wants to grow revenue.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported above $236.8 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue reported below $200 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Doyle's experience may influence strategic decisions. His impact could shape future growth.
Watch forAfter Doyle was appointed, new plans or purchases were announced.
Also watch forNo new plans or purchases were announced after Doyle was appointed.
Why it matters: More production helps TPL make more money. It also shows market conditions.
Supportive ifOil and gas royalty production exceeds 39.7 thousand Boe per day in the next quarter.
Worry ifProduction falls below 37.1 thousand Boe per day in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Water sales are a key revenue stream. Growth indicates effective management and demand.
Supportive ifWater sales revenue in Q2 increases compared to $83.3 million in Q1.
Worry ifWater sales revenue in Q2 decreases compared to $83.3 million in Q1.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $434 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,689 loss on $10,000 · 36.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can drive growth and expand TPL's market position. Progress here is crucial for long-term success.
Watch forA new strategic acquisition or partnership that fits TPL's growth plans is announced.
Also watch forNo news on acquisitions means growth efforts are stuck.
Why it matters: Strong land sale revenue shows good management and demand for TPL's assets.
Supportive ifLand sale revenue reported above $20 million in the next earnings report.
Worry ifLand sale revenue was under $10 million. This shows possible weakness in demand.
Why it matters: New land purchases can help grow data centers and power generation.
Supportive ifThere is news of land purchases over $50 million for data centers.
Worry ifNo new land acquisitions are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New agreements would indicate strong demand for TPL's land and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifLand sale agreements total more than $20 million.
Worry ifNo land sale agreements exceed $20 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This report will show TPL's financial health and how well it operates.
Watch forEarnings report shows improved revenue and net income compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals further declines in revenue or net income.
Why it matters: New land purchases show TPL is growing its data center and power projects. These are important for future income.
Supportive ifTPL announced new land buys in Shackelford and Jones Counties for over $50 million.
Worry ifNo new land purchases announced or they are less than $50 million.
Why it matters: This facility is key for TPL's growth in water services and could boost revenue.
Supportive ifThe facility in Orla, Texas will start full operations. It will process 10,000 barrels each day.
Worry ifThe plant's opening is later than expected.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can help a company grow. They show that management cares about this.
Supportive ifLook for a press release about an acquisition worth over $50 million.
Worry ifNo news about acquisitions in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, there may be problems with efficiency and profits.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $180 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is above $180 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, water sales may face problems. This would hurt revenue.
Worry ifWater sales revenue reported below $80 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifWater sales revenue exceeds $80 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This facility is key for TPL's water supply strategy. Its success could boost revenue from water services.
Supportive ifThe facility will get its first inlet barrels as planned in the next weeks.
Worry ifThe facility's finish is delayed past the expected time.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can expand TPL's revenue base and support growth in data centers.
Supportive ifTPL announces it has bought more land besides Shackelford and Jones Counties.
Worry ifNo new land acquisitions are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is crucial for TPL's diversification and financial health.
Supportive ifWater Services and Operations will make over $82.2 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenues decline or stay flat compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Hitting this cash flow target shows management cares about finances. It means better cash flow despite changing revenues.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $136.4 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $100 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Acquisitions help the company grow. They show where management wants to go.
Supportive ifThe company announced a new acquisition. It fits with their growth goals.
Worry ifNo acquisitions announced within the next six months.
Why it matters: This project could enhance TPL's revenue through land and water services. Progress indicates strong demand.
Supportive ifChevron shares news about progress on Project Kilby.
Worry ifProject Kilby has delays or cancellations. These changes affect TPL's expected money.