Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-07-08
$394.35-2.09%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
Reading TPL? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track TPL free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-07-08
Reading TPL? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track TPL free→QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $394.35. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $394 the market pays 36× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 121× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $581 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 216% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 9.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.62/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $125.58 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | low |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $129.17 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | low |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $70.89 | — | — | TTM | low |
| graham number | 12M | $74.06 | — | — | TTM | low |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $58.56 | 5.6 | 9.85 | TTM | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $96.84 | 13.5 | 7.15 | TTM | low |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $178.56 | 16.5 | 10.81 | TTM | low |
| residual income | 12M | $56.58 | — | — | TTM | low |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $1266.31 | 117.1 | 10.81 | TTM | low |
| triangulated | 12M | $171.38 | 16.5 | 10.38 | Triangulated | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $109.35 | 13.5 | 8.07 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $118.57 | 13.5 | 8.75 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.