Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$287.65-13.36%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.32 → 10.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TPL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at least $2.07 in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in Texas Pacific Land Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.07 per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $1.80 in 2026-Q2 | Diluted EPS: $2.42 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.07 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20262.42 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TPL is a growth and asset-expansion story tied to oil and gas royalties, with newer efforts in data center land, power generation, and water treatment. The long-term thesis is intact: royalty production is growing and management is making progress on stated priorities, though earnings quality is fragile and overall risk is elevated.
TPL is expensive versus peers, and the evidence flags a high degree of fragility in what is priced in, citing valuation, execution quality, and sector conditions. The expectations gap is positive, but confidence in that measure is medium, so the current valuation leaves limited room for execution problems without resolving the underlying uncertainty.
Over the multi-year view, rising royalty production and revenue support the business, while data center and power-related land acquisitions and water-treatment work broaden its growth efforts. Near term, a recent earnings beat and a low estimated miss risk are constructive, but past deep misses and recent peer misses matter; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
The thesis depends on continued growth in royalty production and on management turning land acquisitions and desalination progress into durable business contributions. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength from COP, EOG, and OXY would support the energy backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from those companies could remove that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, TPL’s business thesis remains intact, but its expensive valuation and fragile earnings quality make execution and energy-sector signals important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is strong, expected at $136 million next quarter and $380 million for 2025 full year. |
| Broken |
| Free cash flow falls below $120 million in 2026-Q2 |
Free cash flow: $151.006M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $136.4 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 5, 2026151,006,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $236.8 million in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in Texas Pacific Land Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $236.8 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $200 million in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $273.39M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $236.8 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026273,390,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful strategic acquisitions to enhance growth | The company is expanding through strategic acquisitions and new water and data center businesses. | Intact | No meaningful acquisitions or growth from acquisitions in next 4 quarters | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.69 → $10.20 · observed estimates
$1.09B → $1.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.69 | $1,094,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.69 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.58 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.58 | $1,100,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.76 | $1,117,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.76 | $1,117,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.76 | $1,117,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.76 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.14 | $1,115,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.32 | $1,131,500,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.20 | $1,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.20 | $1,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.20 | $1,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.20 | $1,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.20 | $1,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.20 | $1,167,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.