Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$362.42-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches at least $236.8 million in 2026-Q2: rev $246.1M vs $236.8M target.
Texas Pacific Land grows revenue about 20% yearly, with $237 million guided for 2026-Q2. Free cash flow is strong, expected at $136 million next quarter and $380 million for 2025 full year. The company is expanding through strategic acquisitions and new water and data center businesses. Profitability is solid with EPS guidance at $2.07 for 2026-Q2.
Revenue growth is uneven, with a recent drop from $203 million to $141 million in late 2025. Profit margins and cash flow could weaken if acquisitions do not deliver. The stock trades at a high PE of 37, above peers, risking multiple contraction if growth slows.
The price is about 33% below our fair value near $616, reflecting cautious optimism. Analysts expect about 20% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance, but recent estimate revisions are slightly down.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.80 in 2026-Q2
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $120 million in 2026-Q2
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $200 million in 2026-Q2
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity in the energy sector. TPL is focused on expanding its land acquisitions and increasing oil and gas royalty production, which supports its long-term growth strategy.
The current valuation reflects a premium compared to peers, indicating that the market has high expectations for TPL's performance. However, there is a fragility in the valuation due to weak execution quality and a turbulent sector backdrop.
Management is making progress on key priorities, particularly in increasing royalty production and revenue. However, the recent financial performance is neutral, and there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance, especially as industry peers have faced challenges.
The thesis hinges on inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY. A favorable shift in these areas could support TPL's growth, while a cut in guidance would negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: No meaningful acquisitions or growth from acquisitions in next 4 quarters
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TPL's performance will depend on its execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.