Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TransUnion (TRU)
NYSEIndustrialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$82.13+4.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.59 → 5.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TRU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue growth from acquisitions | A primary condition in TransUnion's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.12B revenue in FY26. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $4.5B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.312B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.12B revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20261,312,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented business with a mixed execution profile, not a clear-cut durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent financial strength, but earnings quality is fragile and overall risk is elevated.
TRU is described as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The pricing signal is considered justified, with low fragility rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation and weak execution.
Near term, results are strong: Q3 revenue rose 8% on an organic constant-currency basis, matching management’s high-single-digit growth aim, and full-year guidance is 8% to 9%. Repurchases are on track, but innovation-led growth execution is mixed; a CEO transition and a history of a deep miss add risk despite recent earnings beats and raised guidance.
Over the next few quarters, a guidance cut after the recent raise would damage management credibility as well as lower the outlook. The broader Industrials backdrop is another swing factor: continued strength from sector bellwethers could support momentum, while weaker results or guidance could remove that tailwind.
For a 1-to-3-year view, the thesis is intact but rests on sustaining high-single-digit growth and protecting credibility, with fragile earnings quality and sector headwinds limiting confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in TransUnion's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.08 EPS in FY26. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $2.2 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.81 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.08 EPS in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20260.81 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage regulatory and privacy risks | A supporting condition in TransUnion's published investment case. The stated target is No major regulatory penalties or restrictions. | Intact | Significant regulatory penalties or restrictions announced | No major penalties reported News confirms earnings beats and product launches. No reports of fines or regulatory restrictions impacting TRU. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.59 → $5.35 · observed estimates
$5.55B → $5.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.59 | $5,550,721,810 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.59 | $5,550,721,810 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.59 | $5,550,721,810 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.59 | $5,550,721,810 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.57 | $5,560,499,603 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.57 | $5,578,209,508 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.59 | $5,556,889,080 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.61 | $5,575,122,890 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.61 | $5,575,122,890 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.61 | $5,575,122,890 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.61 | $5,575,122,890 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.60 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.61 | $5,587,463,151 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.61 | $5,587,453,627 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.61 | $5,591,660,777 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.60 | $5,591,403,635 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.60 | $5,591,403,635 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.60 | $5,591,403,635 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.60 | $5,591,403,635 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.61 | $5,588,235,227 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.61 | $5,588,235,227 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.61 | $5,588,235,225 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.61 | $5,588,515,637 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.61 | $5,588,515,637 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.61 | $5,588,515,637 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.61 | $5,588,131,666 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.59 | $5,588,349,518 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.59 | $5,588,349,518 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.59 | $5,588,349,518 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.59 | $5,588,349,518 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.59 | $5,588,349,518 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.59 | $5,588,349,518 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.58 | $5,592,216,994 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.58 | $5,619,762,367 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.58 | $5,615,901,256 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.58 | $5,615,901,256 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.58 | $5,615,923,478 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.58 | $5,615,923,478 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.58 | $5,615,923,478 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.56 | $5,588,391,916 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.56 | $5,588,391,916 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.56 | $5,588,391,916 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.56 | $5,588,391,916 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.51 | $5,561,986,814 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.51 | $5,561,986,814 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.47 | $5,538,882,013 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.47 | $5,538,882,013 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.47 | $5,538,029,349 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.47 | $5,538,029,349 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.47 | $5,538,029,349 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.47 | $5,538,029,349 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.47 | $5,538,029,349 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.47 | $5,538,029,349 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.39 | $5,495,149,472 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.36 | $5,482,164,472 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.35 | $5,479,499,472 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.35 | $5,479,499,472 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.35 | $5,479,499,472 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.35 | $5,479,499,472 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.35 | $5,479,499,472 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.35 | $5,479,499,472 | 14 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
2 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.