TransUnion (TRU)
NYSEIndustrialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.88-5.93%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
TRU — credit agreement
Dated 2026-02-12
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 11, 2026, TransUnion Intermediate Holdings, Inc. (“Holdings”), Trans Union LLC (the “Borrower”), certain wholly-owned subsidiaries of TransUnion (the “Company”), Deutsche Bank AG New York Branch, as the administrative agent and the collateral agent, and the lenders party thereto, entered into Amendment No. 25 (the “Amendment”) to the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of August 9, 2017 (as amended, amended and restated…
Why it matters: Acquisitions are a key priority for growth. Success here can improve revenue outlook.
Supportive ifThey announced a completed acquisition. It adds over $100M in annual revenue.
Worry ifThere are no acquisition announcements. There are also no failed attempts to acquire.
Why it matters: U.S. Financial Services is key to TransUnion's growth. Lower growth could indicate market challenges.
Worry ifU.S. Financial Services revenue growth reported below 24%.
Less concerning ifU.S. Financial Services revenue growth reported at 24% or higher.
Why it matters: News on capital return plans will show how TransUnion grows. It will also show how they return money to shareholders after buying companies.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear plan for share buybacks or dividends.
Worry ifNo announcement or a delay in capital return plans.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow shows good cash generation and helps with capital plans.
Supportive ifFree cash flow conversion reported at 90% or higher.
Worry ifFree cash flow conversion reported below 90%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $394 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,104 loss on $10,000 · 31.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good integration backs the acquisition plan and helps grow revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says the integration is going well. Operations are doing well in Mexico.
Worry ifThere are reports of integration problems or delays that hurt performance.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is improving or declining. This is key for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Weak growth in international markets might show problems with expanding outside the U.S.
Worry ifInternational revenue growth is less than 10% from last year.
Less concerning ifInternational revenue growth meets or exceeds 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Improvements in operations can lead to better earnings per share. This is crucial for growth.
Supportive ifEPS growth reported above 10% in the next earnings release.
Worry ifEPS growth reported below 5% in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show weak demand or problems.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 11% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at or above 11% year over year.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it could help TransUnion's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows a rebound back toward 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to decline below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can boost revenue. If their impact is less than expected, it could hurt growth.
Worry ifRevenue growth from acquisitions is less than 4 percentage points.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth from acquisitions is 4 percentage points or more.
Why it matters: This shows that the company is getting better. It is also financially strong.
Supportive ifEPS growth guidance is confirmed at 10% or higher.
Worry ifEPS growth guidance is set below 10%.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows how well the company is doing. A drop below 11% may mean problems.
Worry ifEPS growth reported below 11% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifEPS growth reported at or above 11% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More buybacks show strong cash flow and a promise to return money to investors.
Supportive ifShare repurchases reported above $200 million for the year.
Worry ifShare repurchases reported below $150 million for the year.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show problems in key markets or with purchases.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth in constant currency was below 8% for Q3.
Less concerning ifOrganic revenue growth in constant currency was at or above 8% for Q3.
Why it matters: Strong revenue from acquisitions can help overall growth and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifRevenue growth from acquisitions was above 4% for Q3.
Worry ifRevenue growth from acquisitions was below 4% for Q3.