Tractor Supply (TSCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-07-08
$29.58-2.79%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track TSCO free→Tractor Supply grows sales about 4% to 6% in 2026. Profit margins target 9.3% to 9.6%. Capital spending supports expansion with $675M to $725M planned. The VIP Petcare acquisition adds growth potential.
Sales growth is slowing with recent misses and guidance cuts. Profit margins are pressured, down 6.3% in Q1. Weakness in the pet business may hurt long-term growth. Market risks and volatile management add uncertainty.
The stock trades about 27% below our fair value near $42. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth. Our fair value is 10% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism amid recent challenges.
Breaks if: Capex falls below $600M or exceeds $750M in FY26
Tractor Supply plans capital expenditures between $675 million and $725 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures were $202.6 million in 2026-Q1, aligning with the planned range of $675 million to $725 million for fiscal 2026. The trajectory is on track with management's capital allocation plans.
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“Capital Expenditures, Net of Sale Leaseback Proceeds ‘ $675 million to $725 million.”
“Capital Expenditures, Net of Sale Leaseback Proceeds ‘ $675 million to $725 million.”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 9.0% in FY26
Tractor Supply aims to maintain an operating margin rate between 9.3% and 9.6% for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income decreased 6.3% to $233.4 million in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in maintaining the targeted operating margin rate of 9.3% to 9.6%. The trajectory shows limited progress in achieving the margin target.
“Operating margin rate guidance for fiscal 2026 is 9.3% to 9.6%.”
“Operating Margin Rate ‘ 9.3% to 9.6%”
Breaks if: Pet business sales decline more than 5% YoY next year
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26
Tractor Supply reaffirms its financial guidance for fiscal year 2026, including net sales growth and EPS targets.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net sales increased 3.6% to $3.59 billion in 2026-Q1, aligning with the reaffirmed guidance of 4% to 6% growth for fiscal 2026. The trajectory shows consistent alignment with management's stated guidance.
“Company reaffirms fiscal year 2026 outlook, including net sales growth of 4% to 6%.”
“The Company reaffirmed guidance for the results of operations expected for the full fiscal year ending December 26, 2026.”
“We are narrowing our full-year guidance range to reflect our year-to-date performance and a balanced outlook.”