Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Trade Desk (The) (TTD)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.23+2.88%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.25 → 0.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TTD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchases continue at $164 million per quarter | It buys back $164 million in stock each quarter. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below $164 million per quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company used approximately $1.4 billion of cash to repurchase its Class A common stock in the year ended December 31, 2025, at an average repurchase price of $52.60.” “◦ The Company also announced that its board of directors approved an additional $350 million under its share repurchase program, bringing the total amount available for future repurchases of the Company’s outstanding Class A common stock to $500 million.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TTD is a growth business whose long-term case rests on gaining share in the global advertising market and expanding its advertising tools. The thesis remains intact, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed after an earnings miss and a workforce reduction.
The valuation evidence is mixed: TTD is tagged as cheap versus peers, while also carrying a reported 51% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not fully reflected in the model; the evidence labels pricing as justified, with low fragility and medium confidence.
Over the multi-year view, management continues to emphasize market-share gains, but revenue growth slowed to 3% year over year in 2026-Q2 from 19% in 2025-Q2. Unified ID 2.0 adoption has mixed evidence, while share repurchases continue; near term, an earnings miss and the risk of a guidance cut weigh on the setup.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive Communication Services businesses. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could also help sector momentum; evidence on TTD’s own forward growth remains limited.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on TTD sustaining market-share gains as growth slows, with execution and sector conditions as key swing factors. The business case remains intact, but current evidence supports a mixed, higher-risk view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management maintains stable leadership and strategic hires | A supporting condition in Trade Desk (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable leadership and add strategic board members. | Intact | Key management departures or failure to add strategic hires | Leadership stable; 2 strategic board additions (Penry Price, Gaming Veteran) vs target of stable leadership + strategic hires CEO stable; Penry Price added to board (Jul 2026); Gaming veteran added to board (Jun 2026). No key management departures reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 11% year over year | Trade Desk grows revenue about 11% a year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 11% next year | Revenue growth: 3.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20263.02836 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With continued innovation across Kokai, retail data, and the supply chain, we are well positioned to capture greater share of the global advertising market in 2026 and beyond.”” “We have a clear understanding of the factors that impacted our performance, and we are taking decisive action to strengthen our execution, upgrade our platform, and sharpen our focus on the areas where we can create the greatest value.” Revenue was $739.433 million in 2025-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.15 → $0.22 · observed estimates
$3.48B → $2.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.15 | $3,481,554,500 | 22 / 36 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.15 | $3,481,548,750 | 22 / 36 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.19 | $3,491,450,794 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.15 | $3,481,548,750 | 22 / 36 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.19 | $3,491,450,794 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.19 | $3,492,756,620 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.15 | $3,482,890,850 | 22 / 36 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.15 | $3,482,890,850 | 22 / 36 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.19 | $3,492,756,620 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.19 | $3,492,756,620 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.15 | $3,482,890,850 | 22 / 36 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.19 | $3,492,817,136 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.17 | $3,482,924,180 | 20 / 36 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.19 | $3,492,817,136 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.17 | $3,352,365,680 | 19 / 36 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.19 | $3,492,790,110 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.19 | $3,492,790,110 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.19 | $3,492,790,110 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.00 | $2,677,264,620 | 20 / 36 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.19 | $3,492,790,110 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.19 | $3,492,790,110 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.19 | $3,492,790,110 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.19 | $3,492,790,110 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.19 | $3,492,790,110 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.19 | $3,492,790,110 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.24 | $2,632,906,028 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.24 | $2,632,906,028 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.24 | $2,632,906,028 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.24 | $2,632,906,028 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.24 | $2,632,906,028 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.24 | $2,632,904,979 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.24 | $2,632,904,979 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.24 | $2,632,904,979 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.24 | $2,632,904,979 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.24 | $2,632,904,979 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.24 | $2,632,904,979 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.24 | $2,632,904,979 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.24 | $2,632,902,003 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.24 | $2,632,902,003 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.24 | $2,632,902,003 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.24 | $2,632,902,003 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.24 | $2,632,899,119 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.24 | $2,632,896,690 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.24 | $2,632,896,690 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.24 | $2,632,903,144 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.24 | $2,630,470,711 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.24 | $2,630,470,711 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.24 | $2,630,470,711 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.24 | $2,630,470,711 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.24 | $2,630,470,711 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.24 | $2,630,470,711 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.24 | $2,624,416,188 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.24 | $2,624,416,188 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.24 | $2,624,416,188 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.24 | $2,624,416,188 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.24 | $2,624,416,188 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.25 | $2,624,421,593 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.25 | $2,624,421,593 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.25 | $2,624,421,593 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.25 | $2,624,421,593 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.25 | $2,624,421,593 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.25 | $2,619,873,657 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.25 | $2,619,873,657 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.25 | $2,619,873,657 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.25 | $2,619,873,657 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.25 | $2,619,873,657 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.25 | $2,619,873,657 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.25 | $2,618,697,036 | 17 / 26 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.26 | $2,612,591,773 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.26 | $2,612,591,773 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.25 | $2,603,970,688 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.25 | $2,603,970,688 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.25 | $2,603,970,688 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.25 | $2,603,964,404 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.25 | $2,603,964,404 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.25 | $2,603,965,425 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.25 | $2,603,965,425 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.25 | $2,603,965,425 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.25 | $2,603,965,425 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.25 | $2,603,965,425 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.25 | $2,603,965,425 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.25 | $2,603,965,425 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.25 | $2,603,965,425 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.25 | $2,603,965,425 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.21 | $2,603,075,307 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.21 | $2,603,075,307 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.22 | $2,603,067,412 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.22 | $2,603,067,412 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.22 | $2,603,067,412 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.22 | $2,603,067,412 | 18 / 27 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.22 | $2,603,067,412 | 18 / 27 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 23 Hold · 8 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.