Trade Desk (The) (TTD)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.43-4.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue grows at least 11% year over year: Q2 FY2026 +3.0% vs 11% target.
Trade Desk grows revenue about 11% a year. It buys back $164 million in stock each quarter. The company adds new board members to improve strategy. It beats earnings estimates by over 70%.
Competition from Amazon and Netflix may hurt market share. Management changes could slow growth. The stock is down 22% from its high.
The price is about 35% below our fair value near $30. Analysts expect about 11% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is 19% above the Street median.
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $164 million per quarter
Breaks if: Key management departures or failure to add strategic hires
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on capturing market share in the global advertising space. The current thesis state is intact, even as recent financial performance has been mixed and the sector faces headwinds.
The market currently prices TTD as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is low fragility in the stock, indicating that the current valuation is justified without significant concerns.
Management has shown robust earnings quality but has faced volatility in execution. Recent results indicate slowing revenue growth, and while there is a low probability of missing earnings, the industry has a high miss rate, which adds some risk.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on key priorities, such as expanding Unified ID 2.0 adoption and capturing more market share. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial in determining TTD's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 11% next year
Overall, TTD's fundamentals and management priorities suggest a cautious but stable outlook for the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.