Trade Desk (The) (TTD)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.43-4.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TTD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TTD — workforce reduction
Dated 2026-09-04
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On September 3, 2026, The Trade Desk, Inc. (the “Company”) announced a plan to implement an organizational realignment as part of a company-wide effort to align resources with the Company’s highest-priority growth opportunities, improve operational effectiveness and build a more focused, agile and scalable organization positioned for long-term growth. The plan includes the elimination of positions and decreasing the Company’s total workforce…
Why it matters: Strong partnerships for Unified ID 2.0 show The Trade Desk leads in privacy-focused ads.
Supportive ifThey announced at least two new partnerships for Unified ID 2.0.
Worry ifNo new partnerships were announced for Unified ID 2.0 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates may show trust in financial health and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifLook for news about more money for the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Customer retention is a strong indicator of the company's service value. A drop could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifCustomer retention rate is below 95% for the quarter.
Less concerning ifCustomer retention rate remains above 95% for the quarter.
Why it matters: Following the rules is key to keeping the company's stock listing and investor trust.
Worry ifConfirmation from Nasdaq that The Trade Desk is back in compliance with listing rules.
Less concerning ifWatch for more notices of rule-breaking from Nasdaq.
Why it matters: If they meet or beat this guidance, it shows strong growth despite market problems.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at $750 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $750 million.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show strong cash flow and management's belief in the stock's value.
Supportive ifThey reported over $100 million in share repurchases in Q3.
Worry ifThey reported below $100 million in share repurchases in Q3.
Why it matters: Olmstead's leadership may help growth and improve operations. His past experience is key.
Supportive ifThe company shares good news about money plans after his appointment.
Worry ifThere are no clear signs of better money plans after the appointment.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company meets its revenue and EBITDA guidance. Strong results can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue is at least $840 million. Adjusted EBITDA is about $375 million.
Worry ifRevenue is below $840 million. Adjusted EBITDA is much lower than $375 million.
Why it matters: A revenue miss would signal ongoing challenges in capturing market share and growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $650 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $650 million.
Why it matters: New partnerships can help with inventory and improve market position in CTV.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new CTV partnerships with major networks or platforms.
Worry ifNo new CTV partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More repurchases may show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $78 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $78 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$219 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $557 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,593 loss on $10,000 · 75.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.