Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Texas Instruments (TXN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$311.49-0.32%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.28 → 11.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 22 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 23 to 22; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TXN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS rises to $1.91 in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Texas Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.91. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $1.77 in Q2 2026 | Diluted EPS: $2.62 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.91. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 20262.62 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large semiconductor business with a recovery and cash-generation thesis, rather than a speculative growth story. The long-term thesis is intact: recent results have been strong, but earnings quality remains fragile and manufacturing investment progress is mixed.
TXN is cheap versus peers, while the evidence says its valuation is broadly justified and the expectations gap is small. Valuation has risen recently, but the low fragility reading suggests the market is not pricing in a severe combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulence.
Near-term results have been strong, with revenue reaching $6.055 billion in 2026-Q3 and management reporting 28% year-over-year growth. Trailing-12-month free cash flow has also risen, while recent capital spending is lower than earlier periods; guidance credibility improved, but a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk to watch.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued growth across end markets and whether TXN can sustain cash generation while progressing its manufacturing plans. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while easing rates or stabilization among major technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, TXN’s business setup is supported by strong recent performance and cash generation, but fragile earnings quality and mixed manufacturing investment leave execution as the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Texas Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is $450 million synergy target. |
| Intact |
| Synergies fail to reach $450 million by 2029 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to $5.2 billion in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Texas Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.2B. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $5.0 billion in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $6.055B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 20266,055,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.10 → $11.61 · observed estimates
$24.80B → $26.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.10 | $24,801,140,946 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.03 | $24,739,456,060 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.15 | $24,835,753,850 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.15 | $24,835,753,850 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.15 | $24,835,753,850 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.15 | $24,835,753,850 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.03 | $24,771,971,210 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.03 | $24,824,395,450 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.15 | $24,835,753,850 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.15 | $24,891,560,301 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.03 | $24,824,395,450 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.15 | $24,891,560,301 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.15 | $24,891,560,301 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.03 | $24,824,395,450 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.22 | $24,984,598,943 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.03 | $24,824,395,450 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.22 | $24,984,598,943 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.22 | $24,984,598,943 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.03 | $24,824,395,450 | 28 / 33 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.22 | $24,984,598,943 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.22 | $24,984,598,943 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.22 | $24,984,598,943 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.22 | $24,984,598,943 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.22 | $24,984,598,943 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.22 | $24,984,598,943 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.22 | $24,981,151,212 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.28 | $24,976,507,094 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.28 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.27 | $24,976,508,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.33 | $25,047,883,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.33 | $25,047,883,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.33 | $25,047,883,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.33 | $25,047,883,355 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.39 | $25,136,857,480 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.41 | $25,170,278,909 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.10 | $25,824,785,740 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.55 | $26,287,115,306 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.61 | $26,287,115,306 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.61 | $26,287,115,306 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.61 | $26,287,115,306 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.61 | $26,287,115,306 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.61 | $26,327,908,409 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.61 | $26,327,908,409 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.61 | $26,327,908,409 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.61 | $26,327,908,409 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.61 | $26,327,908,409 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.61 | $26,327,908,409 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.61 | $26,327,908,092 | 22 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.61 | $26,327,908,092 | 22 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
4 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.