Texas Instruments (TXN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$293.30-3.36%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $293.30. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $293 TXN trades at 50× p/e, below its 73× p/e peer median, but our blended $220 fair value sits well below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $215–$400. The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $342 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$215.00 – $400.00 (median $300.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-06-29
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 517% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 17.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.41/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $300.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $54.39 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $44.47 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $39.16 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $49.11 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $204.77 | 50.3 | 4.07 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $656.52 | 73.4 | 8.95 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $211.50 | 10.5 | 20.17 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $205.09 | 22.9 | 8.95 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $35.83 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $328.12 | 36.7 | 8.95 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $442.54 | 73.4 | 6.03 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $173.17 | 50.3 | 3.44 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $868.24 | 73.4 | 11.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $333.92 | 10.5 | 31.85 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $271.23 | 22.9 | 11.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $433.94 | 36.7 | 11.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $154.87 | 50.3 | 3.08 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1148.25 | 73.4 | 15.65 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $441.61 | 10.5 | 42.12 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $358.70 | 22.9 | 15.65 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $573.89 | 36.7 | 15.65 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.