Texas Instruments (TXN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$258.44+1.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $258 TXN trades at 39× p/e, below its 49× p/e peer median. Our $270 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $225–$405. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $340.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $206.12 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $229.39 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $99.39 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$225.00 – $405.00 (median $340.00) · 21 analysts · as of 2026-07-29
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 454% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 12.6 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.53/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $54.16 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $271.21 | 46.6 | 5.82 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $259.61 | 25.3 | 10.27 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $174.91 | 8.3 | 21.14 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $208.85 | 20.3 | 10.27 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $39.36 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $344.64 | 49.4 | 6.98 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $412.48 | 46.6 | 8.85 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $343.33 | 25.3 | 13.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $286.81 | 8.3 | 34.67 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $276.20 | 20.3 | 13.59 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $545.51 | 46.6 | 11.71 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $454.06 | 25.3 | 17.97 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $379.30 | 8.3 | 45.85 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $365.28 | 20.3 | 17.97 | Analyst | medium |