Texas Instruments (TXN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$311.49-0.32%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TXN — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-02
CFO (Chief Accounting Officer) — Rafael Lizardi: Mr. Lizardi is retiring after 25 years with the Company and will be succeeded by Julie Knecht.
Why it matters: TI's momentum score rose from 9.2 to 66.0. A further rise would support the recent rebound; a drop would weaken that signal.
Watch forThe next company momentum score is above 66.0.
Also watch forThe next company momentum score is below 66.0.
Why it matters: TI said both markets grew in Q3, along with data center. More broad growth would support its revenue growth focus.
Supportive ifQ4 results show revenue grew year over year in both industrial and automotive markets.
Worry ifQ4 results show revenue fell year over year in industrial or automotive markets.
Why it matters: TI reported $8.4 billion in free cash flow for the latest 12 months. More cash would support its cash return focus.
Supportive ifThe next reported trailing-12-month free cash flow is above $8.4 billion.
Worry ifThe next reported trailing-12-month free cash flow is below $8.4 billion.
Why it matters: TI's Q4 EPS range starts at $2.45. A result below that point would miss the low end of its outlook.
Worry ifQ4 2026 EPS is below $2.45.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 EPS is at least $2.45 and within or above the guided range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,376 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: TI says 300mm production helps cash flow. Capital spending over the past year fell to $2.6 billion. Higher spending would show renewed investment in capacity.
Watch forCapital spending over the past 12 months rises above $2.6 billion. TI still says 300mm production helps cash flow.
Also watch forCapital spending over the past 12 months stays at or below $2.6 billion. TI reports no increase in capacity investment.
Why it matters: TI guided to Q4 revenue of $5.80 billion to $6.30 billion. A result below the range would break the recent growth streak.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $5.80 billion.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue is at least $5.80 billion and within or above the guided range.