Texas Instruments (TXN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$258.44+1.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
TXN — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-02
CFO (Chief Accounting Officer) — Rafael Lizardi: Mr. Lizardi is retiring after 25 years with the Company and will be succeeded by Julie Knecht.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategy. This may affect investor confidence and stock performance.
Watch forPositive market reaction to the new CFO's first public statements or strategy.
Also watch forNegative market reaction or lack of confidence in the new CFO's strategy.
Why it matters: Cost savings can lower expenses and raise profits. This helps overall earnings.
Watch forManagement says they reached at least 75% of their cost savings goals.
Also watch forManagement says they reached less than 50% of their cost savings goals.
Why it matters: Getting operational synergies can cut costs and improve margins. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifManagement says there are at least 10% savings from working together better.
Worry ifNo progress on working together better was reported in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will give important details about revenue and EPS. This affects how people feel about the stock.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong revenue and EPS growth.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EPS decline.
Why it matters: Approval is key for Texas Instruments. It will help them grow in wireless solutions.
Supportive ifThe acquisition has been approved.
Worry ifRejection or big delays in the acquisition process.
Why it matters: Getting these benefits will increase profits and support the purchase plan. It affects future earnings.
Supportive ifAnnual benefits reported at $450 million or more within three years after closing.
Worry ifBenefits below $450 million or delays could be a problem.
Why it matters: If guidance is exceeded, it shows strong demand and good operations. This supports growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance is above $6.15 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is below $5.65 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in free cash flow raises worries about TI's cash and returns to shareholders.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported above $6 billion in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported below $5 billion in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level show strong profits and good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $2.57.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $2.23.
Why it matters: Closing the acquisition would improve TI's products and operations. This could boost growth.
Supportive ifAcquisition closes in the first half of 2027 with expected synergies of $450 million.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close or has big delays past 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $338 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,376 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.