Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Uber (UBER)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.78-1.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.44 → 4.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 28 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 29 to 28; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UBER yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase Adjusted EBITDA to at least $2.48 billion | Profit measured by Adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to $2.5 billion. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.87 billion (2025-Q1 level) | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with strong recent operating results and a record of generating cash. Its multi-year view is intact, but management execution is rated volatile and overall risk is elevated.
The evidence describes Uber as cheap versus peers, while the pricing assessment is tagged justified and shows low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain below the model’s view, but confidence in the overall assessment has eased to medium.
Near-term results show profitable growth: second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA rose 33% year over year, non-GAAP EPS rose 35%, and free cash flow reached $2.8 billion. Gross Bookings, Trips, and active consumers also grew, though recent earnings have been erratic and a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in bookings and trips alongside higher profits and cash generation. Turkey expansion is a developing execution test, while sector bellwethers’ results and guidance could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the operating case remains supported by strong growth and cash generation, but execution risk, possible guidance weakness, and sector conditions remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is positive at $2.3 billion, showing operational strength. |
| Intact |
| Free Cash Flow falls below $2.25 billion (2025-Q1 level) |
Free cash flow: $2.792B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.29 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 20262,792,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow Gross Bookings to at least $53.7 billion | Uber grows gross bookings 25% yearly to $53.7 billion. | Intact | Gross Bookings fall below $42.8 billion (2025-Q1 level) | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage regulatory challenges and resume growth in Europe | A supporting condition in Uber's published investment case. The stated target is No material regulatory setbacks and resumption of Europe expansion within 12 months. | Improving | Significant regulatory fines or prolonged Europe expansion halt beyond 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.53 → $4.44 · observed estimates
$67.07B → $66.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.53 | $67,065,038,069 | 38 / 44 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.53 | $67,082,103,890 | 38 / 45 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.53 | $67,082,103,890 | 38 / 45 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.48 | $67,017,943,553 | 29 / 34 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.48 | $67,017,943,553 | 29 / 34 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.54 | $67,092,183,690 | 37 / 45 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.54 | $67,092,183,690 | 37 / 45 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.52 | $67,102,043,490 | 38 / 47 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.48 | $67,025,949,217 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.52 | $67,102,043,490 | 38 / 47 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.52 | $67,102,043,490 | 38 / 47 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.52 | $67,102,043,490 | 38 / 47 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.48 | $67,025,949,217 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.52 | $67,136,844,249 | 37 / 47 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.45 | $67,112,805,674 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.62 | $67,008,685,780 | 38 / 48 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.45 | $67,112,805,674 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.62 | $66,784,027,449 | 39 / 48 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.45 | $67,112,805,674 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.45 | $67,112,805,674 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.45 | $67,112,805,674 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.45 | $67,112,805,674 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.45 | $67,112,805,674 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.45 | $67,112,805,674 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.45 | $67,112,805,674 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.44 | $66,792,281,072 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.44 | $66,792,281,072 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.42 | $66,790,828,594 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.42 | $66,790,828,594 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.42 | $66,790,828,594 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.42 | $66,799,696,689 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.42 | $66,803,888,179 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.42 | $66,803,888,179 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.42 | $66,803,888,179 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.42 | $66,809,411,342 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.42 | $66,809,411,342 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.42 | $66,809,411,342 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.42 | $66,809,411,342 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.42 | $66,829,490,701 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.42 | $66,829,490,701 | 31 / 37 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.41 | $66,846,295,652 | 31 / 37 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.41 | $66,846,295,652 | 31 / 37 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.41 | $66,846,295,652 | 31 / 37 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.41 | $66,846,295,652 | 31 / 37 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.41 | $66,846,288,063 | 31 / 37 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.42 | $66,819,885,072 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.44 | $66,801,885,072 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.44 | $66,803,588,573 | 30 / 37 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.45 | $66,826,048,574 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.45 | $66,826,048,574 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.45 | $66,826,048,574 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.45 | $66,826,048,574 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.45 | $66,826,048,574 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.42 | $66,818,233,238 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.42 | $66,818,233,238 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.42 | $66,818,233,238 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.42 | $66,818,233,238 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.42 | $66,818,233,238 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.42 | $66,818,233,238 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.42 | $66,818,233,238 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.42 | $66,818,233,238 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.43 | $66,832,003,838 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.43 | $66,832,003,838 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.43 | $66,832,003,838 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.43 | $66,832,003,838 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.43 | $66,832,003,838 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.44 | $66,832,003,838 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.44 | $66,823,226,859 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.44 | $66,823,226,859 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.44 | $66,823,226,859 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.43 | $66,812,118,086 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.44 | $66,805,430,586 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.44 | $66,805,430,586 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.44 | $66,805,430,586 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.44 | $66,805,424,516 | 29 / 35 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.44 | $66,805,424,516 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.44 | $66,805,424,516 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.44 | $66,795,561,348 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.44 | $66,795,562,016 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.44 | $66,795,563,270 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.44 | $66,795,562,513 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.44 | $66,795,562,513 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.44 | $66,795,661,437 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.44 | $66,795,661,437 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.44 | $66,802,660,182 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.44 | $66,802,660,182 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.44 | $66,802,662,266 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.44 | $66,802,662,266 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.44 | $66,802,662,266 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.44 | $66,802,662,266 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.44 | $66,802,663,520 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.44 | $66,802,663,520 | 30 / 36 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.44 | $66,802,663,520 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.44 | $66,802,663,520 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.44 | $66,802,677,239 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.44 | $66,802,677,239 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.44 | $66,797,797,154 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.44 | $66,775,772,844 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.44 | $66,775,772,844 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.44 | $66,775,772,844 | 29 / 36 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.43 | $66,739,593,847 | 28 / 35 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.44 | $66,738,767,817 | 28 / 35 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 41 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.