Uber (UBER)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.87+4.91%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UBER
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 17.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UBER — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as otherwise expressly stated in such filing.
Why it matters: Uber plans to use cash and debt for the offer. The company said gross leverage would stay below 2x.
Worry ifA filing or results release shows gross leverage at or above 2x after deal funding.
Less concerning ifA filing or results release shows gross leverage below 2x after deal funding.
Why it matters: Uber said members drive half of Gross Bookings across Mobility and Delivery. More members would support its cross-platform plan.
Supportive ifUber reports more than 50 million Uber One members. Members account for more than half of Gross Bookings across Mobility and Delivery.
Worry ifUber reports membership at or below 50 million, or members account for less than half of Gross Bookings.
Why it matters: Uber set a Q3 range of $58.25 billion to $60.25 billion. A result above the top end would beat its stated growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 Gross Bookings exceed $60.25 billion, above the company’s stated range.
Worry ifQ3 Gross Bookings fall below $58.25 billion, below the company’s stated range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $360 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,108 loss on $10,000 · 31.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.