Uber (UBER)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.76-0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UBER
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UBER — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Credit Agreement On August 6, 2026, Uber Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “Term Loan Credit Agreement”), among the Company, as borrower, the lenders party thereto and Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc., as administrative agent. The Term Loan Credit Agreement was entered into in connection with the previously disclosed Business Combination Agreement, dated as of July 16, 2026, by and among t…
Why it matters: Approval would improve Uber's delivery services in Turkey. This is an important growth market.
Supportive ifRegulators approve the deal with no big conditions.
Worry ifRegulators add conditions that change the deal's value or setup.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA growth shows how well Uber is managing costs while growing. A slowdown could raise concerns.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth below 35% year over year.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA growth meets or exceeds 35% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower growth in Adjusted EBITDA may show problems with costs and profits.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is below 31% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is above 38% compared to last year.
Why it matters: The deal could help Uber grow and offer more services. Delays may slow down growth.
Supportive ifThe Delivery Hero deal will close as planned in the second half of 2027.
Worry ifThe deal may face delays or rules that push the closing date past 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,413 loss on $10,000 · 34.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in free cash flow may limit Uber's ability to invest and pay back shareholders.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $2.8 billion for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported above $3 billion for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The deal could help Uber grow its market share. Problems could slow down growth plans.
Watch forThe Delivery Hero deal is expected to increase EPS by a high single digit.
Also watch forThere may be delays or cancellation of the Delivery Hero deal.
Why it matters: Non-GAAP EPS is a key measure of profitability. A miss could indicate deeper issues in operations.
Worry ifQ1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS below $0.65.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP EPS meets or exceeds $0.72.
Why it matters: Better Free Cash Flow is key for Uber's spending and investment plans.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow grows more than 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow growth remains below 2% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would help Uber grow and reach more customers.
Supportive ifThe deal closes if at least 50% of Delivery Hero shareholders agree.
Worry ifThe deal fails if not enough shareholders agree or if regulators say no.
Why it matters: Progress on this acquisition could expand Uber's market presence and drive future growth.
Supportive ifLook for news about approval or completion of the Delivery Hero deal.
Worry ifWatch for news of delays or rejection of the deal by regulators.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to maintaining momentum in Uber's expansion strategy. A drop signals potential issues in market demand.
Worry ifQ3 Gross Bookings growth falls below 18% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Gross Bookings growth meets or exceeds 22% year over year.
Why it matters: This EPS number is key for showing Uber's profit growth. A miss could raise worries about costs.
Worry ifQ3 Non-GAAP EPS comes in below $0.84.
Less concerning ifQ3 Non-GAAP EPS meets or exceeds $0.88.
Why it matters: Growth in MAPCs is crucial for sustaining revenue and engagement. A slowdown could indicate market saturation.
Supportive ifMAPCs increase by more than 16% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifMAPCs grow less than 16% year over year in Q3.