Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vicor Corporation (VICR)
NASDAQIndustrialsHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$159.07-11.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.32 → 6.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VICR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit to improve steadily | Profit margins improve steadily. | Improving | Gross profit falls below $59M in next 4 quarters | Gross profit: $134.68M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $62M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 2026134,680,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VICR is an execution-led growth business, with a durable premium valuation rather than a turnaround or deep-value setup. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and robust earnings quality, though the risk level is high.
The shares are expensive versus peers, with the premium linked to expectations of durable business strength. The valuation score has recently fallen, and the priced-in assessment calls the premium justified, with low fragility rather than a broad stack of valuation and business weaknesses.
Near term, revenue growth and management’s capacity expansion are on track: revenue rose from $112.969 million in 2026 Q1 to $197.114 million in Q3, while the company added equipment and purchased two sites. Royalty revenue also grew, and VICR reported its first VPD license to an AI OEM, though recurring licensing growth is not yet established. A recent earnings miss and a run of misses make the next guidance update important, despite the low estimated miss risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on turning added capacity for high-current-density second-generation VPD into sustained product growth, while licensing and royalty revenue develop beyond the initial progress. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength or weakness among industrial bellwethers could also support or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the next one to three years, VICR combines strong execution evidence with high risk and an expensive valuation, so the thesis rests on continued growth and capacity utilization. The thesis remains intact, but recent earnings misses warrant attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Vicor Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $17M. |
| Intact |
| Operating income fails to exceed $15M in next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $72.148M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $17M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 202672,148,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to sustain near 58% YoY | A primary condition in Vicor Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=58% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 40% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.95 → $6.35 · observed estimates
$0.94B → $0.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.55 | $940,325,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.95 | $938,660,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.99 | $942,740,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.99 | $942,740,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.99 | $942,740,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.99 | $942,740,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.99 | $942,740,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.99 | $942,740,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.99 | $942,740,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.19 | $961,060,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.19 | $961,060,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.26 | $965,060,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.32 | $969,060,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.32 | $969,060,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.32 | $969,060,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.32 | $969,060,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.35 | $969,700,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.32 | $956,940,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.26 | $940,820,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.26 | $940,820,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.26 | $940,820,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.26 | $940,820,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.26 | $940,820,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.26 | $940,820,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.26 | $940,820,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.26 | $940,820,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.35 | $943,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.35 | $943,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.35 | $943,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.35 | $943,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.35 | $943,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.35 | $943,025,000 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.