Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Valley Bank (VLY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$14.06-2.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.53 → 1.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VLY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.11 | The bank keeps paying dividends of $0.11 per share and is investing in AI to improve efficiency. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.11 in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.11 dividend per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VLY is a bank with a value-oriented, execution-sensitive thesis rather than a clear, durable compounder. The long-term thesis is currently intact, though earnings quality is fragile and the risk assessment has recently risen from low to moderate.
The valuation evidence describes VLY as cheap versus peers, with expectations close to the model’s view and low priced-in fragility. This suggests limited expectations pressure, but the evidence does not establish that the business risks are low.
Through 2026-Q3, deposits and loans grew, while the efficiency ratio improved; expense changes show mixed progress on operational efficiency. A recent earnings beat followed a July miss, and the near-term miss-risk assessment is low, though peers have missed lately and VLY has a history of a deep miss.
The multi-year view depends on sustaining core deposit growth, diversifying loans, and turning the pending Providence and Bluevine acquisitions into measurable results. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would be adverse factors, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, VLY’s thesis rests on steady execution in growth and efficiency, with acquisition integration and fragile earnings quality still important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share are expected to rise to about $1.28 in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.00 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.01 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase total loans to at least $51 billion | Valley Bank is growing deposits and loans steadily, with deposits at $52.9 billion and loans at $50.8 billion as of Q1 2026. | Intact | total loans fall below $50 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow low-cost core deposits to at least $53 billion | Valley Bank is growing deposits and loans steadily, with deposits at $52.9 billion and loans at $50.8 billion as of Q1 2026. | Intact | total deposits fall below $52 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.53 → $1.53 · observed estimates
$2.50B → $2.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.53 | $2,498,043,660 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.53 | $2,499,352,490 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.53 | $2,499,352,490 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.53 | $2,498,050,640 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.53 | $2,498,050,640 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.55 | $2,498,808,871 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.53 | $2,502,280,830 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.53 | $2,502,280,830 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.53 | $2,502,280,830 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.53 | $2,502,280,830 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.53 | $2,502,280,830 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.53 | $2,502,280,830 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.53 | $2,502,280,830 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.55 | $2,503,039,061 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.55 | $2,503,036,454 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.55 | $2,503,036,454 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.55 | $2,503,036,454 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.55 | $2,503,036,454 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.55 | $2,503,036,454 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.55 | $2,503,036,454 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.54 | $2,507,920,489 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.54 | $2,507,920,489 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.54 | $2,507,920,489 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.54 | $2,525,124,950 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.54 | $2,525,124,950 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.54 | $2,525,124,950 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.54 | $2,525,124,950 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.54 | $2,525,124,950 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.54 | $2,525,124,950 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.54 | $2,525,124,950 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.54 | $2,525,124,950 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.54 | $2,525,296,181 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.54 | $2,525,296,181 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.54 | $2,531,033,619 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.54 | $2,534,625,665 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.54 | $2,534,656,435 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.54 | $2,537,224,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.54 | $2,537,224,367 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.54 | $2,538,378,213 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.54 | $2,538,378,213 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.54 | $2,538,378,213 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.54 | $2,538,378,213 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.54 | $2,537,313,395 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.54 | $2,537,313,395 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.53 | $2,595,302,386 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.53 | $2,621,587,342 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.53 | $2,621,587,342 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.53 | $2,621,587,342 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.53 | $2,621,587,342 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.53 | $2,660,152,638 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.53 | $2,671,214,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.53 | $2,671,214,696 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.53 | $2,671,214,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.53 | $2,671,214,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.53 | $2,671,214,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.53 | $2,671,214,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.53 | $2,671,214,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.53 | $2,671,214,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.53 | $2,682,683,307 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.53 | $2,682,683,307 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.53 | $2,682,683,307 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.53 | $2,682,683,307 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.53 | $2,682,683,307 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.53 | $2,682,683,307 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.53 | $2,682,683,307 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.53 | $2,682,683,307 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.52 | $2,686,777,849 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.53 | $2,702,146,998 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.53 | $2,702,146,998 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.53 | $2,705,977,844 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.53 | $2,705,977,844 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.53 | $2,729,708,613 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.53 | $2,729,708,613 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.53 | $2,729,708,613 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.53 | $2,729,708,613 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.53 | $2,729,708,613 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.53 | $2,729,708,613 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.53 | $2,733,057,467 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.53 | $2,733,057,467 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.53 | $2,733,057,467 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 7 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.