Valley Bank (VLY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.03+0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -17.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
VLY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026 , Valley National Bancorp (“Valley”) issued a press release announcing Valley’s financial results for the second quarter 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise…
Why it matters: More charge-offs could mean credit problems and hurt profits.
Worry ifNet loan charge-offs remain below $22 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet loan charge-offs exceed $25 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Valley is investing in AI to improve client services. Success could enhance competitive position.
Watch forClient feedback on AI services improves a lot.
Also watch forClient feedback on AI services is negative or shows no improvement.
Why it matters: More deposits show strong customer ties and a good market position.
Supportive ifTotal deposits increase by more than $1 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal deposits decline or grow less than $500 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher costs can hurt profits and efficiency. This may make investors uneasy about costs.
Worry ifNon-interest costs are over $311.1 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNon-interest expense remains at or below $311.1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend steady shows financial health and commitment to shareholders. A cut could signal trouble.
Supportive ifThe company announces the dividend remains at $0.11 for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.11.
Why it matters: Updates on AI investments will show how Valley is making client experience better. It also shows improved efficiency.
Watch forManagement will discuss specific AI projects or new hires in the Q2 2026 earnings call.
Also watch forNo mention of AI investments or progress in the Q2 2026 earnings call.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth goes down, it may show bigger economic problems. These issues could hurt Valley Bank's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Growing low-cost deposits is key for Valley's profitability. It helps reduce funding costs and supports loan growth.
Supportive ifCore deposits increase by more than $500 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCore deposits decline or grow less than $200 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Diversifying the loan portfolio lowers risk and stabilizes earnings. Investors will look for changes.
Supportive ifThe percentage of commercial real estate loans decreases by 5% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe share of commercial real estate loans goes up or stays the same in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More provisions may mean worse credit quality, which can hurt profits.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses remains below $29.2 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses exceeds $35 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may mean less demand or more competition. This affects future earnings.
Worry ifTotal loans grow less than 5% annualized in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal loans grow at or above 5% annualized in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing net income shows the company is improving its profitability. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifNet income reported for Q2 is higher than the previous quarter.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 is lower than the previous quarter.
Why it matters: A better net interest margin shows good loan growth and deposit management. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest margin is over 3.20%. This shows successful margin growth.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 3.17%. This suggests problems with loans or deposits.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows good customer acquisition and market demand. This helps Valley grow.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase by more than $1.5 billion in Q3.
Worry ifTotal loans grow less than $1 billion in Q3, indicating weaker demand.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better operations. This helps Valley manage costs.
Supportive ifThe efficiency ratio drops to under 52% in Q3.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio worsens to above 53%. This means costs are rising.
Why it matters: The acquisition could enhance Valley's market presence and funding profile in Chicago. This move aligns with Valley's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe deal will finish by early 2027. This will happen after all approvals and shareholder consent.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face delays or may not get the needed approvals.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $244 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,364 loss on $10,000 · 13.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.