Valley Bank (VLY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$14.06-2.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VLY — capital allocation — Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-09-28
Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities. On September 27, 2026, Valley National Bancorp, a New Jersey corporation (“Valley”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Bluevine Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Bluevine”), and certain other parties thereto, pursuant to which, upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, Valley will acquire Bluevine (the “Transaction”). The completion of the Transaction is subject to the satisfaction of customary…
Why it matters: Bluevine would add a digital small-business platform and deposit ties. Closing would mark progress on Valley’s digital growth plan.
Supportive ifRegulators approve the Bluevine deal, and Valley closes it in early 2027.
Worry ifRegulators deny approval, or the deal is ended or pushed past early 2027.
Why it matters: Q3 charge-offs rose to $37.1 million from $22.0 million in Q2. Another rise would point to worsening loan losses.
Worry ifQ4 net loan charge-offs exceed $37.1 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 net loan charge-offs fall below $22.0 million, the Q2 level.
Why it matters: Margin rose to 3.28% in Q3. Another gain would support Valley’s claim that it can keep margins ahead.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin, adjusted for taxes, is above 3.28%.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin, adjusted for taxes, falls below 3.20%.
Why it matters: Deposits rose by $1.1 billion in Q3, but time deposit and other deposit costs also rose. Low-cost growth would support Valley’s funding plan.
Watch forQ4 deposits rise above $55.2 billion, and the average cost of deposits stays at or below 2.28%.
Also watch forQ4 deposits drop below $54.1 billion, or the average deposit cost tops 2.28%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,830 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.