Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$297.69+4.60%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VMC — President transition
Dated 2026-10-22
Senior Vice President — David P. Clement: The filing announces a planned retirement of a Senior Vice President in the future, which is an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of a top executive.
Why it matters: The sector data show shrinking revenue, though recent signs point to a possible change. Positive growth would confirm that shift.
Supportive ifThe materials sector's three-year revenue growth turns positive.
Worry ifThe materials sector's three-year revenue growth stays at or below zero.
Why it matters: Vulcan completed two bolt-on deals in Tennessee and southern Ohio. Results can show whether these assets add to earnings.
Supportive ifA later earnings release reports higher sales or profit from the Tennessee and southern Ohio assets. It reports no added costs to combine them.
Worry ifA later earnings release shows lower sales or profit tied to these assets. Or it reports material costs to combine them.
Why it matters: Management sees another year of earnings growth from higher prices and lower costs. Cash profit per ton shows whether that plan is working.
Supportive ifIn 2027 results, aggregates cash gross profit per ton rises year over year. Mix-adjusted prices rise in the mid- to high-single digits.
Worry ifAggregates cash gross profit per ton falls year over year. Or mix-adjusted prices rise less than the mid-single digits.
Why it matters: The full-year goal is $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion. Results below that range would miss the stated earnings target.
Watch forVulcan reports at least $2.4 billion in Adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2026.
Also watch forVulcan reports less than $2.4 billion in Adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $313 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,696 loss on $10,000 · 27.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.