Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$262.63+0.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
VMC — President transition
Dated 2026-05-11
President — Thompson S. Baker II: The President is retiring, which may cause leadership transition concerns.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can enhance growth and market position. They are part of the company's strategy.
Supportive ifNews of an acquisition that increases market reach or skills.
Worry ifNo announcements of acquisitions in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The president is retiring. This may change how the company works.
Watch forA strong successor with the right experience was announced.
Also watch forNo announcement or a weak successor named.
Why it matters: Successful integration can help Vulcan grow. Investors will watch this closely.
Supportive ifManagement says they have integrated well. They also saved money.
Worry ifIntegration problems cause delays or extra costs.
Why it matters: News on acquisitions can show growth chances and improve market position. It shows management's commitment to growth.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new acquisition. This fits their plan for growth.
Worry ifNo news on acquisitions or delays in plans. This may show a slowdown in growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $297 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,205 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The $750-$800 million allocation shows how the company invests for future growth. Changes could signal strategy shifts.
Watch forCapital spending was at least $800 million.
Also watch forCapital spending was below $750 million.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can boost growth and reach more customers.
Supportive ifThey announced a new purchase. This will grow their aggregates operations.
Worry ifNo news on new acquisitions in the next quarter.
Why it matters: President Thompson S. Baker II is retiring. This may change the company's plans.
Worry ifA successor is named who has a strong track record in the industry.
Less concerning ifNo new leader is named. This could cause problems during the change.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A costs can show problems in managing expenses. Keeping costs low is key for profits.
Worry ifSG&A expenses remain at or below $590 million for Q3, showing effective cost control.
Less concerning ifSG&A costs are over $590 million. This may show problems in managing costs.
Why it matters: The new president's plans could impact company direction. Changes in leadership can lead to shifts in focus.
Watch forThe new president has a clear growth plan that matches current goals.
Also watch forNo clear strategy is presented or priorities shift away from current goals.
Why it matters: This sale could improve focus and financials. It reflects strategic shifts in the business.
Supportive ifThe sale of the California concrete business is now complete.
Worry ifThe divestiture faces delays or fails to close.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue may show a recovery in the materials sector.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below -1% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in cash gross profit per ton shows strong pricing and good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 aggregates cash gross profit per ton exceeds $12.02.
Worry ifQ3 aggregates cash gross profit per ton falls below $11.53.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A costs may mean problems with cost management and hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 SG&A expenses reported below $580 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 SG&A expenses exceed $590 million.
Why it matters: Falling Adjusted EBITDA may show weak operations. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was more than $2.6 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $2.4 billion.