Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$285.51-4.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.46 → 9.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VMC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4-$2.6 billion in 2026 | Vulcan aims to earn $2.4-$2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.4 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VMC is a durable, aggregates-led business with a sector tailwind, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though recent earnings reduced momentum and shifted the near-term signal to mixed.
VMC is valued at a substantial premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable business strength. The valuation is stretched, and the estimated expectations gap is 23%, though confidence in that estimate is low.
In the near term, aggregates cash profit per ton improved modestly, while shipments fell year over year; the latest earnings were in line and management reaffirmed its 2026 outlook. The trailing-twelve-month adjusted EBITDA remains below the outlook’s lower bound, so delivery is not yet demonstrated; risk is described as moderate, with a low estimated near-term miss risk.
Over the next few quarters, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the industry backdrop. The multi-year view also depends on continued gains in aggregates profitability and disciplined acquisitions, alongside delivery against the 2026 EBITDA outlook.
For the next 1 to 3 years, VMC’s operating thesis remains intact, but the expensive valuation makes execution and sector conditions important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to spend $750-$800 million on capital projects. |
| Intact |
| Capital spending falls below $750 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $177.6M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 750-800 USD millions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026177,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin at or above 20% in 2026 | A supporting condition in Vulcan Materials Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=20%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 20% in FY26 | Gross margin: 30.47% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202630.46782 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near 4.5% in next 12 months | A primary condition in Vulcan Materials Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.5% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 4.5% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.77 → $9.98 · observed estimates
$8.59B → $8.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.77 | $8,590,217,300 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.77 | $8,590,217,300 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.77 | $8,590,217,300 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.77 | $8,590,217,300 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.77 | $8,590,217,300 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.80 | $8,649,843,138 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.78 | $8,615,223,190 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.77 | $8,622,392,660 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.76 | $8,641,893,620 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.76 | $8,641,893,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.79 | $8,646,921,120 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.76 | $8,641,893,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.79 | $8,630,831,640 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.79 | $8,630,831,640 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.76 | $8,647,863,620 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.74 | $8,653,435,389 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.74 | $8,653,435,389 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.74 | $8,653,435,389 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.74 | $8,653,435,389 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.74 | $8,653,435,389 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.73 | $8,646,338,620 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.73 | $8,646,338,620 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.73 | $8,646,338,620 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.73 | $8,646,338,620 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.73 | $8,646,338,620 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.73 | $8,646,338,620 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.73 | $8,646,338,620 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.73 | $8,646,338,620 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.73 | $8,646,338,620 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.73 | $8,646,334,212 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.73 | $8,646,334,212 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.73 | $8,646,334,212 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.73 | $8,646,334,212 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.73 | $8,646,334,212 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.73 | $8,646,334,212 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.73 | $8,646,334,212 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.64 | $8,625,034,212 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.64 | $8,625,034,212 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.64 | $8,625,036,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.64 | $8,625,036,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.64 | $8,625,036,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.64 | $8,625,036,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.64 | $8,625,036,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.64 | $8,625,036,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.64 | $8,625,036,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.64 | $8,625,036,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.60 | $8,617,286,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.60 | $8,617,286,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.60 | $8,617,286,342 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.60 | $8,617,311,342 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.60 | $8,617,311,342 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.55 | $8,606,715,405 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.55 | $8,606,715,405 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.55 | $8,606,715,405 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.55 | $8,606,715,405 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.55 | $8,606,715,405 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.55 | $8,606,715,405 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.55 | $8,606,715,405 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.55 | $8,606,715,405 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.54 | $8,606,052,233 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.47 | $8,596,589,204 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.46 | $8,594,439,204 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.45 | $8,594,439,204 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.45 | $8,594,439,204 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.45 | $8,594,439,204 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.40 | $8,595,028,028 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.40 | $8,595,028,028 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.38 | $8,585,203,028 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.38 | $8,585,203,028 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.37 | $8,571,073,028 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.35 | $8,566,342,229 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.28 | $8,562,264,729 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.27 | $8,551,537,837 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.27 | $8,551,537,837 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.19 | $8,545,871,171 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.19 | $8,545,871,171 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.19 | $8,545,871,171 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.19 | $8,545,871,171 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.16 | $8,536,895,417 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.13 | $8,528,491,080 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.13 | $8,528,491,080 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.13 | $8,528,491,080 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.13 | $8,528,491,080 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.13 | $8,528,491,080 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.13 | $8,528,491,080 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.13 | $8,531,577,444 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.09 | $8,484,098,588 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.98 | $8,449,557,867 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.98 | $8,449,557,867 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.98 | $8,449,557,867 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.98 | $8,410,722,578 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.98 | $8,402,536,732 | 15 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.