Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
NYSEMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$299.86-1.63%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $299.86. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $300 the market pays 36× p/e — above the 24× p/e peer median but in line with its own 36× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $233 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $283–$340. Note: our $233 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($283–$340). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $307 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$283.00 – $340.00 (median $321.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-30
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.81/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $320.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $360.06 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $353.53 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $33.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $110.10 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $209.57 | 14.3 | 17.07 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $273.05 | 32.1 | 8.51 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $196.05 | 23.5 | 8.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $128.87 | 2.1 | 61.45 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $231.38 | 27.7 | 8.34 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $75.61 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $296.86 | 35.6 | 8.34 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $199.20 | 23.5 | 8.47 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $415.28 | 32.1 | 12.94 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $549.20 | 32.1 | 17.11 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.