Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$549.04+3.44%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
21.11 → 20.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VRTX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cystic fibrosis product revenue growth | Vertex grows revenue about 8% yearly, driven by cystic fibrosis drugs. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 11.85% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202611.845014 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented healthcare business with established cystic fibrosis products and newer products that are expanding. The multi-year view is intact: recent financial performance is strong and management priorities are on track, though earnings quality is neutral and risk is moderate.
VRTX trades at a 1.36 premium versus peers, and the evidence flags the valuation as expensive. The expectations gap is 0.43, with re-rating identified as the valuation driver, but confidence in that estimate is medium. This leaves the shares sensitive to any sign that execution or guidance is weakening.
Near-term results have been strong, including a guidance raise on August 3, 2026. Over the multi-year thesis, cystic fibrosis revenue and access have expanded, while JOURNAVX prescriptions and CASGEVY revenue have grown from low starting points. A guidance reversal would hurt management credibility, and the industry’s recent pattern of missed results remains a watch point.
The thesis depends on continued cystic fibrosis reach and growth, plus sustained commercial expansion for JOURNAVX and CASGEVY. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent raise is a key downside scenario; weakening jobs data could also pressure healthcare names. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare peers such as REGN, MRNA, and ARGX would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VRTX has an intact business thesis backed by strong recent results and progress across three management priorities. The main tension is that execution must keep supporting an expensive valuation, while the evidence carries medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Embedded in this guidance are expectations for continued growth in CF, $500 million or more in revenue from CASGEVY and JOURNAVX combined, and $40 million to $50 million in revenue from PALSONIFY following the closing of the Crinetics Pharmaceuticals transaction on September 1.” “2 Full Year 2026 Financial Guidance Vertex today raised its full year 2026 total revenue guidance to $13.15 billion to $13.25 billion from $13.1 billion to $13.2 billion previously.” Revenue was $3.441 billion in 2026-Q3.
JOURNAVX revenue and prescription growth | A supporting condition in Vertex Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is >= $29 million revenue. | Intact | JOURNAVX revenue falls below $20 million next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expansion into rare disease market via acquisition | Vertex expands into rare diseases with a $10 billion acquisition. | Improving | Acquisition fails to add meaningful revenue or delays occur | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue for fiscal year 2026 | A primary condition in Vertex Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.95 billion revenue. | Intact | total revenue falls below $12.5 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $3.441B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.95 billion revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20263,440,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.40 → $20.19 · observed estimates
$14.35B → $14.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $21.40 | $14,347,104,807 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $21.31 | $14,347,460,320 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $21.31 | $14,347,460,320 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $21.31 | $14,347,460,320 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.31 | $14,347,460,320 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $21.33 | $14,349,131,845 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $21.31 | $14,347,460,320 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.31 | $14,347,460,320 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.35 | $14,357,493,940 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $21.34 | $14,358,294,230 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $21.35 | $14,357,493,940 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $21.26 | $14,410,387,790 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $21.26 | $14,410,387,790 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.29 | $14,508,332,130 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-08 | $21.24 | $14,528,366,068 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $21.24 | $14,528,366,068 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $21.24 | $14,528,366,068 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.80 | $14,584,278,160 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $21.80 | $14,584,278,160 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $21.24 | $14,528,366,068 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $21.24 | $14,528,366,068 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $21.24 | $14,528,366,068 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $21.24 | $14,528,366,068 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $21.24 | $14,528,366,068 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $21.24 | $14,528,366,068 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $21.33 | $14,569,240,424 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $21.34 | $14,573,557,976 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $21.34 | $14,573,557,976 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $21.40 | $14,579,946,180 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.40 | $14,579,946,180 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $21.40 | $14,579,946,180 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $21.40 | $14,579,946,180 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $21.40 | $14,579,946,180 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $21.40 | $14,579,946,180 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $21.40 | $14,579,946,180 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $21.40 | $14,579,946,180 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $21.40 | $14,579,946,180 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $21.40 | $14,579,957,418 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $21.31 | $14,575,507,378 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $21.31 | $14,575,507,378 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $21.21 | $14,575,507,378 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $21.21 | $14,575,507,378 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $21.21 | $14,575,507,378 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $21.21 | $14,575,507,378 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $21.21 | $14,575,507,378 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $21.21 | $14,575,507,378 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $21.19 | $14,578,565,709 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $21.19 | $14,578,475,020 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $21.15 | $14,600,583,759 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $21.15 | $14,600,583,759 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $21.15 | $14,600,583,759 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $21.15 | $14,600,583,759 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $21.15 | $14,600,607,885 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $21.15 | $14,600,602,474 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $21.15 | $14,600,602,474 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $21.15 | $14,600,602,474 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $21.15 | $14,600,602,474 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $21.15 | $14,600,602,474 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $21.09 | $14,608,366,671 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $21.09 | $14,608,366,671 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $21.09 | $14,616,321,055 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $21.09 | $14,616,321,055 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $21.09 | $14,616,402,919 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $21.09 | $14,616,402,919 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $21.09 | $14,616,402,919 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $21.11 | $14,622,820,230 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $21.11 | $14,624,859,515 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $21.10 | $14,642,481,777 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $21.10 | $14,642,481,777 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $21.10 | $14,642,481,777 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $21.00 | $14,672,688,162 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $21.05 | $14,661,260,209 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $21.05 | $14,661,260,209 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $21.05 | $14,663,245,316 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $21.05 | $14,663,245,316 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $21.05 | $14,663,246,159 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $21.05 | $14,663,246,159 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $21.06 | $14,663,242,587 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $21.06 | $14,663,242,587 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $21.06 | $14,663,242,586 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $21.07 | $14,667,984,600 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $21.07 | $14,667,984,600 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $21.07 | $14,667,984,600 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $21.07 | $14,667,984,600 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $21.07 | $14,667,984,600 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $21.06 | $14,662,541,514 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.06 | $14,662,541,514 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.06 | $14,662,541,514 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.08 | $14,664,952,228 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.08 | $14,664,952,228 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.08 | $14,664,952,228 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $20.70 | $14,694,089,641 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $20.19 | $14,682,437,391 | 16 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.