Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$549.04+3.44%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 60.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 65 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VRTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 2, 2026, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release in which it reported its consolidated financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…
Why it matters: JOURNAVX revenue rose to $50 million in Q2, and about 900,000 prescriptions were filled in the first half. The next report will show if growth continues.
Supportive ifQ3 JOURNAVX revenue exceeds $50 million, with prescription volume above Q2's roughly 535,000.
Worry ifQ3 JOURNAVX revenue is $50 million or less, or prescription volume falls below Q2's roughly 535,000.
Why it matters: Vertex raised its 2026 revenue range to $13.1 billion to $13.2 billion. Results test whether growth across CF and newer products supports that higher range.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue reaches at least $13.1 billion, with non-CF revenue of $500 million or more.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue falls below $13.1 billion or non-CF revenue falls below $500 million.
Why it matters: Vertex's 2026 revenue guidance excludes Crinetics. Closing the deal and then updating guidance would show how the purchase changes its near-term outlook.
Watch forVertex says the deal closed. It gives updated 2026 guidance that includes Crinetics.
Also watch forThe deal is still open or is ended. Vertex gives no updated guidance after the stated Q3 closing window.
Why it matters: VX-828 is Vertex's first next-generation CF corrector in a proof-of-concept study. The results will test whether it can support future CF treatment options.
Watch forVertex reports study results in the second half of 2026 and says VX-828 showed a benefit in people with CF.
Also watch forVertex reports no benefit, a safety concern, or a delay beyond the second half of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,521 loss on $10,000 · 15.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: CASGEVY revenue reached $76 million in Q2, up 78% from Q1. More treatments and wider access would show that the gene therapy business is growing.
Supportive ifQ3 CASGEVY revenue tops $76 million, and reported infusions rise from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 CASGEVY revenue is $76 million or less, or reported infusions fall from Q2.