Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$546.12-2.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 65.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VRTX — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-01
CFO — Jonathan Poole: The filing discloses the internal promotion of Jonathan Poole to CFO and the role transition of Charles F. Wagner, Jr. to COO, which is a planned succession rather than a sudden executive departure.
Why it matters: This submission is important for Vertex's growth in nephrology. Approval could increase revenue and add new products.
Supportive ifVertex submits the BLA for povetacicept in IgAN to the FDA by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifVertex has delayed the BLA submission for povetacicept. It is past the expected date.
Why it matters: Approval for younger patients would grow the market for Vertex's CF therapies. This could boost revenue.
Supportive ifVertex submits for global approvals for ALYFTREK in kids ages 1 to under 2.
Worry ifVertex does not submit for approval on time.
Why it matters: More prescriptions show that JOURNAVX is accepted in the market and can grow.
Supportive ifTotal prescriptions for JOURNAVX exceed 500,000 by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal prescriptions for JOURNAVX remain below 350,000 by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue guidance can show shifts in the market or product success. This impacts how investors feel.
Watch forRevenue guidance raised above $13.1 billion in Q3 2026.
Also watch forRevenue guidance lowered below $12.95 billion in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $239 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,521 loss on $10,000 · 15.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good results could grow the market for CASGEVY. This would help Vertex grow.
Watch forVertex shares positive data from key studies of CASGEVY in kids ages 5 to 11.
Also watch forVertex shares negative data from key studies of CASGEVY in kids ages 5 to 11.
Why it matters: Going past this threshold shows Vertex is diversifying beyond cystic fibrosis treatments.
Supportive ifVertex reports non-CF product revenue of $500 million or more in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNon-CF product revenue remains below $500 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Expanding into new markets can increase revenue and strengthen Vertex's CF product line.
Supportive ifALYFTREK secures reimbursement in at least three new countries by the end of 2026.
Worry ifALYFTREK fails to gain reimbursement in any new countries by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The acquisition could help Vertex grow its pipeline and make more money.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes by the end of Q3 2026, with no delays.
Worry ifThe deal does not close. This is due to regulatory issues or problems with shareholders.
Why it matters: Approval would grow the market for CASGEVY and increase revenue.
Supportive ifCASGEVY gets approval for kids aged 5-11 by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifApproval for CASGEVY in this age group is delayed or denied.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth shows strong market acceptance and demand for JOURNAVX. This supports Vertex's growth in acute pain management.
Supportive ifJOURNAVX revenue exceeds $50 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifJOURNAVX revenue declines or fails to grow compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth for CASGEVY would show that Vertex's gene therapy works for sickle cell disease.
Supportive ifCASGEVY revenue exceeds $76 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCASGEVY revenue declines or fails to grow compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance shows management believes they can meet growth goals. It shows the business is healthy.
Watch forVertex confirms total revenue guidance of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion for 2026.
Also watch forVertex lowers total revenue guidance for 2026.