Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-07-08
$522.25-1.39%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $522.25. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $522 the market pays 28× p/e — above the 22× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $388 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $350–$616. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $586 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$350.00 – $616.00 (median $556.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 120% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $14.80/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $556.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $192.30 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $213.73 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $178.85 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $266.44 | 14.6 | 16.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $303.38 | 21.0 | 14.48 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $406.60 | 21.6 | 18.82 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $478.75 | 10.0 | 47.67 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $117.77 | 6.3 | 18.82 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $121.67 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $451.79 | 24.0 | 18.82 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $410.50 | 21.6 | 19.00 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $289.33 | 21.0 | 13.81 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $513.32 | 21.6 | 23.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $618.60 | 10.0 | 61.60 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $148.68 | 6.3 | 23.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $570.38 | 24.0 | 23.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $280.33 | 21.0 | 13.38 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $583.37 | 21.6 | 27.00 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $703.01 | 10.0 | 70.00 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $168.97 | 6.3 | 27.00 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $648.21 | 24.0 | 27.00 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.