Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Wayfair Inc (W)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$123.56+11.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.94 → 3.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for W yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improvement in adjusted EBITDA flow-through | A primary condition in Wayfair Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EBITDA margin improvement from current levels. | Improving | EBITDA margin fails to improve or declines over next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
W is a high-risk recovery and growth business, not yet a durable profit compounder, because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent results showing better revenue and adjusted EBITDA, though management execution has been volatile.
The valuation is at a 3.1-times premium to peers, and the evidence labels that premium justified, with no fragility warning. The expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.03, but model confidence is low, so the degree of optimism already reflected is uncertain.
Near term, revenue grew 7.5% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, while adjusted EBITDA rose from $151 million to $242 million from the prior quarter. Management is on track with revenue growth, EBITDA flow-through, and convertible-note repurchases, but its new secured debt issuance was a mixed outcome and the risk label has risen to high.
The near-term downside case is a guidance cut, especially given erratic earnings surprises that have been trending down. The sector backdrop could help or hurt: continued strong results from AMZN, BABA, and PDD may support sector momentum, while weaker results could remove that tailwind. Over the multi-year view, the central test is whether revenue growth and improving profitability continue without worsening financial risk.
For the next one to three years, W’s thesis rests on turning recent revenue and adjusted EBITDA progress into sustained improvement while managing debt and high execution risk. The thesis is intact, but evidence remains mixed and model confidence is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans to manage debt by repurchasing convertible notes. |
| Intact |
| No further repurchases of convertible notes within next 12 months |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near consensus of 7% next year | A primary condition in Wayfair Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~6.7% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 9.72% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6.7% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20269.720885 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.65 → $3.96 · observed estimates
$13.93B → $14.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.65 | $13,925,999,296 | 17 / 22 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.74 | $13,927,329,010 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.67 | $13,930,173,633 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.74 | $13,927,329,010 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.74 | $13,927,329,010 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.67 | $13,934,976,966 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.67 | $13,934,976,966 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.68 | $13,941,608,799 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.68 | $13,941,608,799 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.68 | $13,941,608,799 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.75 | $13,941,150,660 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.68 | $13,941,608,799 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.75 | $13,939,678,970 | 26 / 30 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.75 | $13,939,678,970 | 26 / 30 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.85 | $14,327,311,800 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.85 | $14,319,615,789 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.90 | $14,374,753,543 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.89 | $14,382,982,908 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.89 | $14,382,982,908 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.89 | $14,382,982,908 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.89 | $14,382,982,908 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.89 | $14,382,982,908 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.89 | $14,382,982,908 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.89 | $14,382,982,908 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.89 | $14,382,982,908 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.89 | $14,392,452,117 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.89 | $14,392,444,730 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.89 | $14,392,444,730 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.89 | $14,392,444,730 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.89 | $14,392,444,730 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.89 | $14,392,664,085 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.89 | $14,392,664,085 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.89 | $14,392,664,085 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.89 | $14,392,664,085 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.89 | $14,392,664,085 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.89 | $14,392,664,085 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.89 | $14,392,664,085 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.89 | $14,392,664,085 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.90 | $14,404,276,988 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.90 | $14,404,276,988 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.90 | $14,404,276,988 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.90 | $14,404,276,988 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.90 | $14,404,276,988 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.90 | $14,404,276,988 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.90 | $14,404,276,988 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.90 | $14,404,276,988 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.94 | $14,406,518,333 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.94 | $14,406,518,333 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.94 | $14,406,518,333 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.94 | $14,406,518,333 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.94 | $14,406,518,333 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.94 | $14,406,518,333 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.94 | $14,406,518,333 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.93 | $14,414,205,208 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.93 | $14,413,339,020 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.93 | $14,413,339,020 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.93 | $14,413,339,020 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.93 | $14,413,339,020 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.93 | $14,413,339,020 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.93 | $14,413,339,020 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.93 | $14,413,339,053 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.93 | $14,413,349,234 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.93 | $14,413,349,234 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.93 | $14,413,349,234 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.93 | $14,413,349,234 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.93 | $14,417,711,734 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.94 | $14,418,802,359 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.94 | $14,420,546,109 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.94 | $14,420,424,234 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.95 | $14,424,571,109 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.95 | $14,424,571,109 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.95 | $14,424,571,109 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.95 | $14,424,571,109 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.95 | $14,425,856,606 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.95 | $14,425,856,606 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.95 | $14,425,971,424 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.95 | $14,439,370,503 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.95 | $14,439,370,503 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.95 | $14,439,370,503 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.96 | $14,444,157,599 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.96 | $14,444,151,148 | 19 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.