Wayfair Inc (W)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$113.38-8.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · W
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
W — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-18
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Q2 free cash flow was $301 million, its strongest level since 2020. Positive cash flow would show that gain continued.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow is above $0 and operating cash flow is also positive.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow falls below $0.
Why it matters: Management aims to grow profit dollars faster than sales. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose to $242 million from $205 million.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA grows faster year over year than revenue, and its margin stays at or above 6.9%.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA grows more slowly than revenue, or its margin falls below 6.5%.
Why it matters: International revenue fell 1.3% in Q2 after growing in Q1. A return to growth would show the Q2 drop did not persist.
Watch forQ3 international revenue grows from a year ago. Constant-currency growth is above 0%.
Also watch forQ3 international revenue falls from a year ago again. Constant-currency growth is below 0%.
Why it matters: Wayfair grew revenue 7.5% in Q2. Another strong quarter would back its claim of taking share and growing sales.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grows more than 7% year over year, with orders delivered also above 6% growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year, or orders delivered growth turns negative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $635 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,178 loss on $10,000 · 51.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.