Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The Wendy's Company (WEN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.65+5.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.52 → 0.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WEN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $460 million in 2026 | The company aims for $460-$480 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Recovered | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $440 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a turnaround case with an international expansion component, not a proven durable growth story. The thesis state is unclear because the available record is too limited to judge how recent financial results have changed the outlook.
The valuation signal says WEN is cheap versus peers, and its valuation score recently fell. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited; the priced-in assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility.
Near term, results remain pressured: global systemwide sales declined in both reported quarters, and U.S. same-restaurant sales fell sharply in the second quarter. Management is working on menu, marketing, operations, digital experience, franchisee economics, and restaurant growth, while international sales grew; execution is mixed so far.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether the turnaround improves traffic, sales, and franchisee economics. International growth, including the planned China expansion, may help over a longer period, while weaker sector bellwether results or materially slower GDP growth would add pressure.
For the next one to three years, WEN remains an uncertain turnaround with persistent sales challenges, some international growth, and low-confidence valuation evidence. The main question is whether management can turn its priorities into sustained operating improvement. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operational improvements could boost franchise profits. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating profit or net income remain below 80% of prior year levels over next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
U.S. systemwide sales and same-restaurant sales stabilize or improve | A primary condition in The Wendy's Company's published investment case. The stated target is U.S. systemwide sales growth >= 0% YoY; same-restaurant sales decline no worse than -2% YoY. | Under Pressure | U.S. systemwide sales growth falls below -5% YoY or same-restaurant sales fall below -7% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.64 → $0.48 · observed estimates
$2.21B → $2.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.64 | $2,206,152,559 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.64 | $2,206,152,559 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.64 | $2,205,922,559 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.64 | $2,205,922,559 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.64 | $2,230,007,957 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.64 | $2,228,666,167 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.55 | $2,192,403,034 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.55 | $2,192,403,034 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.55 | $2,192,403,034 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.55 | $2,192,403,034 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.55 | $2,192,403,034 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.54 | $2,189,447,937 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.54 | $2,193,639,520 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.54 | $2,193,639,520 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.54 | $2,193,639,520 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.53 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.53 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.53 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.54 | $2,190,850,047 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.53 | $2,190,630,752 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.53 | $2,190,630,752 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.53 | $2,190,630,752 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.53 | $2,190,630,752 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.53 | $2,190,630,752 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.53 | $2,190,630,752 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.53 | $2,190,630,752 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.53 | $2,190,630,752 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.53 | $2,187,282,680 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.53 | $2,187,282,680 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.53 | $2,187,282,680 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.53 | $2,187,282,680 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.53 | $2,187,282,680 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.53 | $2,187,282,680 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.52 | $2,184,712,252 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.52 | $2,186,017,864 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.52 | $2,186,017,864 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.52 | $2,182,813,764 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.52 | $2,182,813,764 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.52 | $2,183,595,987 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.52 | $2,183,595,987 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.52 | $2,183,595,987 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.52 | $2,183,595,987 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.52 | $2,183,595,987 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.52 | $2,183,961,464 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.52 | $2,183,961,464 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.52 | $2,183,574,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.51 | $2,182,124,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.51 | $2,182,124,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.51 | $2,182,124,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.51 | $2,182,124,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.51 | $2,182,124,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.51 | $2,182,124,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.51 | $2,179,854,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.51 | $2,179,734,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.51 | $2,179,734,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.51 | $2,179,734,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.51 | $2,179,734,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.50 | $2,175,319,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.50 | $2,176,969,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.50 | $2,176,969,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.50 | $2,176,969,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.49 | $2,173,454,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.49 | $2,173,454,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.49 | $2,173,454,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.49 | $2,173,454,794 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.48 | $2,169,856,543 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.48 | $2,169,867,088 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.48 | $2,169,867,088 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.48 | $2,169,867,088 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.48 | $2,169,867,088 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.48 | $2,169,867,088 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.48 | $2,169,867,088 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.48 | $2,169,867,088 | 14 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.