The Wendy's Company (WEN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.65+5.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 79.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 107.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
WEN — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-05
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On November 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) (excluding the directors affiliated with Trian Fund Management, L.P. (“ Trian ”)) of The Wendy’s Company (the “ Company ”) adopted a stockholder rights plan, as set forth in a Rights Agreement (the “ Rights Agreement ”), dated as of November 4, 2026, between the Company and Equiniti Trust Company, LLC, as rights agent (the “ Rights Agent ”), and authorized and declared a dividend of one pre…
Why it matters: U.S. restaurant margins fell to 13.8% in Q2, down 240 basis points. Lower traffic and higher costs weighed on margins.
Worry ifQ3 U.S. company-run restaurant margin is below 13.8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 U.S. company-run restaurant margin is 13.8% or higher.
Why it matters: Wendy's cut its annual dividend to $0.28 per share to make more room for turnaround spending. Another cut would signal added pressure on cash needs.
Worry ifWendy's announces an annual dividend below $0.28 per share.
Less concerning ifWendy's keeps the annual dividend at $0.28 per share or raises it.
Why it matters: Wendy's withdrew its 2026 outlook while new leaders review the business. A new outlook would set clear goals for the turnaround.
Watch forWendy's gives a full-year 2026 outlook at its November 5 earnings report.
Also watch forWendy's again gives no full-year 2026 outlook on November 5.
Why it matters: U.S. same-restaurant sales fell 7.0% in Q2. A smaller drop would be an early sign that the turnaround is gaining traction.
Supportive ifQ3 U.S. same-restaurant sales fall less than 7.0% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 U.S. same-restaurant sales fall 7.0% or more year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$206 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $529 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,311 loss on $10,000 · 33.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Wendy's signed a deal to build up to 1,000 China restaurants over 10 years. An opening would show that this growth plan has moved forward.
Supportive ifWendy's or its franchise partner names a China site opening under the deal.
Worry ifWendy's reports that the China deal is delayed, canceled, or has no opening plan.
Why it matters: International sales grew 3.4% in Q2, while U.S. sales fell. Continued growth would show that overseas markets remain a source of strength.
Worry ifQ3 international systemwide sales grew less than 3.4% from a year earlier.
Less concerning ifQ3 international systemwide sales growth is at least 3.4% from a year earlier.