Walmart (WMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$107.14-1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WMT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-21
of Form 8-K of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), Walmart Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), is furnishing to the SEC a press release that the Company will issue on May 21, 2026 (the "Press Release") and a financial presentation that will be first posted by the Company on the Company’s website at http://stock.walmart.com on May 21, 2026 (the "Financial Presentation"). The Press Release and the Financial Presentation will disclose information regarding the Company's…
Why it matters: The share buyback program is very important. Slowing down may hurt investor trust.
Worry ifShare repurchases reported at $2 billion or more in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifShare buybacks were below $1 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Walmart's active share buybacks show confidence in the business. This can help the stock price and shows Walmart values its shareholders.
Supportive ifWalmart announces share repurchases of at least $2 billion in Q2.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are announced in Q2.
Why it matters: Operating income growth is crucial for Walmart's profitability. A miss could raise concerns.
Worry ifQ2 operating income growth reported at 7% or higher.
Less concerning ifQ2 operating income growth was below 7%.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance could indicate rising costs or weaker sales. This would affect investor confidence.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance for Q2 reported below $0.72.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS guidance for Q2 meets or exceeds $0.72.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $229 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,352 loss on $10,000 · 23.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If net sales growth falls below 3.0%, it may signal weakening demand. This could affect future guidance and investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 3.0%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth reported above 3.75%.
Why it matters: A drop in advertising revenue growth can hurt profits. Walmart's advertising business helps it grow.
Worry ifAdvertising revenue growth is below 30%.
Less concerning ifAdvertising revenue growth is above 38%.
Why it matters: A slowdown in eCommerce growth could indicate loss of competitive edge. Walmart relies on eCommerce for future growth.
Worry ifeCommerce sales growth reported below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifeCommerce sales growth remains above 23% year over year.
Why it matters: If operating income growth is below 2.0%, costs may be rising. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 2.0%.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth is above 4.0%.