Walmart (WMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$129.17+3.45%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 56.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
WMT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-21
of Form 8-K of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), Walmart Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), is furnishing to the SEC a press release that the Company will issue on May 21, 2026 (the "Press Release") and a financial presentation that will be first posted by the Company on the Company’s website at http://stock.walmart.com on May 21, 2026 (the "Financial Presentation"). The Press Release and the Financial Presentation will disclose information regarding the Company's…
Why it matters: Walmart set capital spending near 4.0% of FY27 sales. A higher share would mark a change from its stated plan.
Worry ifWalmart reports FY27 capital spending above 4.0% of net sales.
Less concerning ifWalmart keeps FY27 capital spending at or below 4.0% of net sales.
Why it matters: Walmart cited a timing shift in Flipkart’s Big Billion Days as a Q3 sales headwind of over 100 basis points. Results will show how much demand moved into Q4.
Watch forQ3 constant-currency net sales grow more than 3.75%, despite the timing shift cited.
Also watch forQ3 constant-currency net sales grow below 3.0%, the low end of guidance.
Why it matters: U.S. comp sales slowed to 2.6% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1. The next result will show whether sales growth is still slowing.
Worry ifWalmart U.S. comp sales, excluding fuel, fall below 2.6% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifWalmart U.S. comp sales, excluding fuel, reach 3.0% or higher in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: The ad business grew 38% in Q2, adding a fast-growing source of sales. A sharp slowdown would weaken that growth story.
Watch forGlobal ad sales grow above 25% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forGlobal ad sales growth is below 15% year over year in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $247 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,352 loss on $10,000 · 23.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Online sales grew 23% globally in Q2, after 26% in each of the prior two quarters. A sharp slowdown would test a key growth plan.
Watch forGlobal eCommerce sales grow at least 20% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forGlobal eCommerce sales growth falls below 15% year over year in the next reported quarter.