Walmart (WMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$107.14-1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating margin near 7-10% in Q3 FY2026: Q2 FY27 operating margin 5.0% vs target 7-10%; Q3 FY27 guidance 3.0% vs trip <6%.
Walmart grows eCommerce sales 26% in 2026-Q2. Operating income rose 5% in 2026-Q2. It has a $30 billion share buyback program. Price cuts and store remodels boost online and store sales.
Rising competition forces Walmart to cut prices, hurting profit margins. Store closures in some states show challenges. Guidance cuts signal slower profit growth ahead.
The price is about 28% above our fair value near $87. Analysts expect 5% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our fair value is well below the Street median near $140.
Breaks if: eCommerce sales growth falls below 5% YoY next year
Breaks if: Operating income growth falls below 3% YoY next year
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 6% next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong despite some market headwinds.
The market currently prices Walmart at an expensive valuation compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating higher future performance than what is justified by current fundamentals.
Management is on track with priorities such as growing eCommerce sales and expanding the advertising business. Recent financial results show strong operating income growth, although there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings expectations.
The thesis hinges on external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector peers. A reversal in guidance or a significant miss could hurt credibility, while positive sector momentum could enhance Walmart's prospects.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Additionally, eCommerce sales growth globally reinforces the company's growth narrative. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $170 billion next quarter
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $5 billion YTD next year
Overall, Walmart's position is supported by solid fundamentals, but its expensive valuation and sector challenges warrant caution. Not investment advice.