Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Walmart (WMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$129.17+3.45%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.22 → 3.23 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 26 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 26 to 26; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
eCommerce sales growth of at least 5% YoY | Walmart grows eCommerce sales 26% in 2026-Q2. | Intact | eCommerce sales growth falls below 5% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our multi-year growth in eCommerce is evidence that customers are choosing Walmart because we deliver price, speed, and convenience across a broad assortment.” “Our outlook reflects the continued prioritization of remaining tariff refunds into price investments • Adjusted EPS 1 of $0.81 excludes the impact, net of tax, from a net loss of $0.12 on equity and other investments, and net benefit of $0.11 from a certain tax matter • ROA at 8.0%; ROI at 15.4% 1 • Global inventory up 6.7%; up 6.0% (cc) 4 , due to strategic initiatives and inflation || 1 See additional information at the end of this release regarding non-GAAP financial measures.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WMT is a large retailer with growth coming from both its established operations and digital businesses. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, while management execution quality and earnings quality remain neutral.
WMT is valued at a durable premium to peers, and its valuation has risen recently. The expectations gap is modest, but the model has low confidence and flags the priced-in setup as elevated in fragility, citing expensive valuation and weak execution quality.
Near-term results have been strong: global eCommerce grew 23% in 2026-Q3, and operating income rose from about $7.5B in 2026-Q1 to $9.4B in 2026-Q3. Advertising growth also remained strong, while management’s three stated priorities are on track; recent guidance was raised, though the evidence notes a history of misses and moderate risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in eCommerce, operating income, and advertising, and on management sustaining its raised guidance. A guidance cut would damage credibility, while continued weakness in job growth could raise recession concerns; strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, the business evidence remains supportive, but the expensive valuation and execution concerns make continued delivery central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income growth of at least 5% YoY | Operating income rose 5% in 2026-Q2. | Under Pressure | Operating income growth falls below 3% YoY next year | Operating income growth: 28.78% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 28, 202628.781224 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 7-10% in Q3 FY2026 | A primary condition in Walmart's published investment case. The stated target is 7-10%. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 6% next quarter | Operating margin: 4.99% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 7-10%. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 28, 20264.992631 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue of at least $175.8 billion in Q3 FY2026 | A primary condition in Walmart's published investment case. The stated target is >=$175.8 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $170 billion next quarter | Revenue: $187.937B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$175.8 billion. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 28, 2026187,937,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchases of at least $8 billion YTD | It has a $30 billion share buyback program. | Under Pressure | Share repurchases fall below $5 billion YTD next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In February 2026, the Company announced a new $30 billion repurchase authorization, which replaced the remaining capacity under the prior authorization.” “Document Walmart reports Q4 results • Revenue growth of 5.6%, up 4.9% in constant currency (cc) 1 • Operating income growing faster at 10.8%, up 10.5% adjusted (cc) 1 • eCommerce sales up 24% globally • GAAP EPS of $0.53; Adjusted EPS 1 of $0.74 • Company announces new $30 billion share repurchase authorization • Company provides outlook for Q1 and FY27 “ BENTONVILLE, Ark., February 19, 2026 – Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT) announces fourth-quarter results with strong growth in revenue and adjusted operating income.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.28 → $3.23 · observed estimates
$787.38B → $785.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.28 | $787,378,483,738 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.28 | $787,378,483,738 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.28 | $787,378,483,738 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.28 | $787,386,773,069 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.28 | $787,386,773,069 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.28 | $787,386,773,069 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.28 | $787,386,773,069 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.28 | $787,386,773,069 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.28 | $787,386,773,069 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.28 | $787,386,773,069 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.28 | $787,093,443,660 | 39 / 35 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.27 | $787,197,066,498 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.27 | $786,649,144,367 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.25 | $787,369,684,361 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.23 | $785,902,021,898 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.23 | $785,902,021,898 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.23 | $785,902,021,898 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.23 | $785,902,021,898 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.23 | $785,651,571,351 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.23 | $785,651,571,351 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.23 | $785,651,571,351 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.23 | $785,359,521,351 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.23 | $785,845,816,770 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.23 | $785,845,816,770 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.23 | $785,954,965,223 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.23 | $785,954,044,171 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.23 | $785,954,044,171 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.23 | $785,954,044,171 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.23 | $785,954,056,547 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.23 | $785,954,056,547 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.23 | $785,954,056,547 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.23 | $785,954,056,547 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.23 | $785,954,056,547 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.23 | $785,954,067,073 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.23 | $785,954,093,389 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.23 | $785,954,093,389 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.23 | $785,954,093,389 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.23 | $785,954,093,389 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.23 | $785,954,093,389 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.23 | $785,954,093,389 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.23 | $785,954,093,389 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.23 | $785,894,777,599 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.23 | $786,096,540,757 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.22 | $785,821,578,174 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.22 | $785,821,578,174 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.22 | $785,821,578,174 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.22 | $785,821,578,174 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.22 | $785,821,578,174 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.22 | $785,821,578,174 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.22 | $785,642,542,226 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.22 | $785,642,542,226 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.22 | $785,642,542,226 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.22 | $785,642,542,226 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.22 | $785,642,542,226 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.22 | $785,642,542,226 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.22 | $785,642,542,226 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.22 | $785,642,542,226 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.22 | $785,642,542,226 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.22 | $785,721,503,764 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.22 | $785,721,503,764 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.22 | $785,592,875,136 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.22 | $785,592,875,136 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.22 | $785,592,875,136 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.22 | $785,592,875,136 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.22 | $785,592,875,136 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.22 | $785,592,875,136 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.23 | $786,001,878,258 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.23 | $786,001,878,258 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.23 | $786,001,878,258 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.23 | $786,001,878,258 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.23 | $786,001,878,258 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.23 | $785,592,076,349 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.23 | $785,592,076,349 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.23 | $785,592,076,349 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.23 | $785,592,076,349 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.23 | $785,592,076,349 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.23 | $785,802,367,860 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.23 | $785,802,367,860 | 26 / 28 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 38 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.