Walmart (WMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$107.14-1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WMT
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $107 the market pays 39× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 41× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $75 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $110–$155. Note: our $75 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($110–$155). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $130.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $16.08 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $18.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $28.57 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$110.00 – $155.00 (median $130.00) · 25 analysts · as of 2026-08-21
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.30/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1, 2027-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $61.55 |
| 11.7 |
| 5.73 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $25.03 | 15.9 | 1.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $48.84 | 15.8 | 3.09 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $78.72 | 0.9 | 92.23 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $71.57 | 25.8 | 2.77 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $18.98 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $112.24 | 40.5 | 2.77 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $49.43 | 16.8 | 2.94 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $15.91 | 15.9 | 1.00 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $53.33 | 15.8 | 3.38 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $90.48 | 0.9 | 106.01 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $99.22 | 25.8 | 3.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $155.60 | 40.5 | 3.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $11.77 | 15.9 | 0.74 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $58.24 | 15.8 | 3.69 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $98.81 | 0.9 | 115.77 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $123.35 | 25.8 | 4.77 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $193.45 | 40.5 | 4.77 | Analyst | high |