Walmart (WMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-07-07
$111.54+0.80%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $111.54. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $112 the market pays 39× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 42× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $87 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $137–$155. Note: our $87 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($137–$155). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $126 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$137.00 – $155.00 (median $140.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.15/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $140.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $11.43 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $28.36 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $50.15 | 19.3 | 2.60 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $85.33 | 16.9 | 5.36 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $31.92 | 20.3 | 1.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $54.68 | 19.3 | 2.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $154.21 | 1.7 | 90.67 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $90.85 | 32.0 | 2.84 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $19.02 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $118.88 | 41.9 | 2.84 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $55.31 | 19.3 | 2.87 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $66.30 | 19.3 | 3.44 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $20.29 | 20.3 | 1.00 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $68.40 | 19.3 | 3.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $180.94 | 1.7 | 106.39 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $113.65 | 32.0 | 3.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $148.72 | 41.9 | 3.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $79.86 | 19.3 | 4.15 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $15.00 | 20.3 | 0.74 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $75.92 | 19.3 | 3.94 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $200.82 | 1.7 | 118.08 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $126.14 | 32.0 | 3.94 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $165.06 | 41.9 | 3.94 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.