Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$227.42+2.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Williams-Sonoma grows sales about 3% to 7% a year. Profit margins stay near 18%. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 15%. Recent earnings beats show strong execution despite a cautious outlook.
Revenue growth slows below 3%. Profit margins fall under 17.5%. Rising costs pressure earnings and dividend growth. The recent guidance cut signals tougher conditions ahead.
The stock price is about 41% above our valuation model and 20% below the Street median. Analysts expect roughly 10% revenue growth, which is higher than recent company guidance. Our view is more cautious on growth and margin sustainability.
Breaks if: Dividend growth stalls or reverses in FY26
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 17.5% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and a commitment to revenue growth and margin maintenance.
The market seems to price in a durable premium, reflecting a high valuation compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors anticipate solid performance but are wary of potential execution risks.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, with management on track to achieve revenue growth and margin targets. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for missed guidance, especially given the company's recent history of misses.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector headwinds. Key scenarios include the impact of inflation on consumer spending and the performance of sector leaders like AMZN and BABA as indicators of broader market trends.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Revenue growth guidance of 2.7% to 6.7% for fiscal 2026 reinforces this positive view. The sector is facing weaker demand, but Williams-Sonoma's performance remains strong.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to focus on maintaining an operating margin between 17.5% and 18.1% for fiscal 2026.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 2.7% in FY26
Aim to achieve revenue growth between 2.7% and 6.7% for fiscal 2026.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WSM's performance will depend on its execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.