Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$227.42+2.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WSM
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $227 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $168 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $185–$275. Note: our $168 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($185–$275). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $246.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $348.10 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $353.58 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $48.32 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$185.00 – $275.00 (median $246.00) · 22 analysts · as of 2026-09-02
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 54% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 6.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.70/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $60.49 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $134.06 | 10.4 | 12.37 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $148.27 | 16.1 | 9.22 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $154.21 | 15.3 | 10.10 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $51.68 | 0.8 | 62.95 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $176.64 | 19.6 | 9.03 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $47.10 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $220.91 | 24.5 | 9.03 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $144.05 | 15.1 | 9.53 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $225.50 | 16.1 | 14.02 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $160.44 | 15.3 | 10.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $62.04 | 0.8 | 75.57 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $244.13 | 19.6 | 12.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $305.31 | 24.5 | 12.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $298.22 | 16.1 | 18.54 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $166.92 | 15.3 | 10.93 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $64.55 | 0.8 | 78.63 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $302.91 | 19.6 | 15.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $378.81 | 24.5 | 15.48 | Analyst | medium |