Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
$222.49-0.60%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $222.49. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $222 WSM trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median — but our blended $158 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $185–$250. Note: our $158 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($185–$250). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $190, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
$185.00 – $250.00 (median $200.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 65% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 9.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.01/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $200.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $340.75 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $346.25 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $46.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $55.98 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $172.76 | 13.9 | 12.15 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $178.14 | 19.5 | 9.14 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $206.88 | 23.2 | 8.93 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $126.18 | 2.1 | 60.51 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $349.01 | 39.1 | 8.93 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $44.98 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $185.86 | 20.8 | 8.93 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $221.17 | 23.2 | 9.55 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $270.93 | 19.5 | 13.90 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $244.65 | 23.2 | 10.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $153.37 | 2.1 | 73.55 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $412.74 | 39.1 | 10.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $219.79 | 20.8 | 10.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $358.30 | 19.5 | 18.38 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $254.54 | 23.2 | 10.99 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $159.57 | 2.1 | 76.52 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $429.41 | 39.1 | 10.99 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $228.67 | 20.8 | 10.99 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.