Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$227.42+2.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WSM — dividend update
Dated 2026-03-18
Other Events On March 18, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors authorized a 15% increase in the Company’s quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: High inventory growth may mean too much stock and future sales.
Worry ifMerchandise inventories were up more than 10% YoY.
Less concerning ifMerchandise inventories were up less than 10% YoY.
Why it matters: This may show a change in how money is spent. It could change how investors feel.
Worry ifQuarterly cash dividend growth was below 15%.
Less concerning ifQuarterly cash dividend growth reported at or above 15%.
Why it matters: An increase would show confidence in cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifA dividend increase was announced. It is beyond 15%.
Worry ifNo dividend increase was announced.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector growth could boost WSM's outlook and sales.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 0%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 0%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $301 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,329 loss on $10,000 · 23.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase would signal strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifA quarterly dividend increase is announced, beyond the current $0.76 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in quarterly dividend from the current $0.76 per share.
Why it matters: A new program may show confidence in cash flow and value for shareholders.
Supportive ifA new stock buyback program was announced, worth over $1 billion.
Worry ifNo announcement of a new stock repurchase program.
Why it matters: A decline could mean higher costs or pricing pressures. This affects profits.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 44.0%.
Less concerning ifGross margin reported above 44.0%.
Why it matters: Higher tariffs could hurt margins and profits.
Worry ifGross margin impact from tariffs exceeds 100 basis points.
Less concerning ifGross margin impact from tariffs remains below 100 basis points.
Why it matters: Lower EPS may show weaker profits and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS reported below $1.93.
Less concerning ifQ2 diluted EPS reported at or above $1.93.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will show if consumer spending is getting better or worse.
Watch forJune retail sales report shows growth above 4%.
Also watch forJune retail sales report shows decline or growth below 2%.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in sales momentum, which could impact the annual growth outlook.
Worry ifQ3 brand revenue growth was below 4.0%.
Less concerning ifQ3 comparable brand revenue growth meets or exceeds 4.0%.
Why it matters: A drop in margins means higher costs. This could hurt profit goals for the year.
Worry ifIn Q3, the non-GAAP operating margin was less than 17.8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating margin meets or exceeds 17.8%.
Why it matters: These refunds could help margins and profit for the quarter.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings report shows tariff refunds over $29.3 million.
Worry ifNo tariff refunds recognized in Q3 earnings report.
Why it matters: This index affects costs. It could change pricing and margins for Williams-Sonoma.
Watch forPPI shows an increase, indicating rising input costs.
Also watch forPPI shows a decrease, indicating stable or falling input costs.