Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$270.08+6.46%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 55.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
WSM — director transition
Dated 2026-10-19
Director — Lynn Martin: The filing announces the appointment of a new non-employee director, which is a routine board composition change and not an executive departure.
Why it matters: The sector data points to shrinking revenue, though recent signals hint at a turn. Retail sales growth would support WSM's strong Q2 sales trend.
Watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows growth above 0% from a year earlier.
Also watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows growth below 0% from a year earlier.
Why it matters: Q2 non-GAAP gross margin fell 160 basis points year over year. Tariff costs cut merchandise margins, while one-time refunds lifted GAAP results.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin falls below 43.9%, 160 basis points below the year-ago Q2 level of 45.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is at least 45.5%, matching the year-ago Q2 level, without tariff refund gains.
Why it matters: WSM raised its full-year sales outlook after Q2 comps rose 6.2%. Q3 results test whether that pace holds.
Supportive ifOn November 18, Q3 comparable brand revenue growth is at least 6.5%, the top of the full-year range.
Worry ifOn November 18, Q3 comparable brand revenue growth is below 4.0%, the bottom of the full-year range.
Why it matters: Q2 inventory was up just 1.0%, against 6.7% total revenue growth. A sharp reversal could point to slower sales or excess stock.
Worry ifQ3 inventory rises more than 6.7% year over year, faster than Q2 total revenue growth.
Less concerning ifQ3 inventory growth is 1.0% or less, matching Q2 year-over-year growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $296 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,329 loss on $10,000 · 23.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.