Weyerhaeuser (WY)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-07-07
$23.29-0.47%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track WY free→Weyerhaeuser owns vast timberlands and steadily grows earnings. Adjusted EBITDA rose from $140 million to $308 million in early 2026. The company targets $1.5 billion more EBITDA by 2030. Strategic Land Solutions aims for $425 million EBITDA in 2026, showing solid segment growth.
The stock trades at a very high PE of 116, far above peers at 16. The free cash flow yield is negative. Analysts expect only 7% revenue growth, but forecasts show declining growth over three years. This suggests the current price may be too optimistic.
The market expects about 7% revenue growth next year but the stock trades at a premium to fair value near $14.33. Our model sees the 3-year growth forecast as negative, indicating the price may be stretched versus fundamentals.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA growth falls short of adding $1.5 billion by 2030
Drive significant value creation through growth initiatives across portfolio to add $1.5 billion incremental Adjusted EBITDA measured against 2024 baseline by 2030.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a strategic priority in 4 disclosures including the 2026-Q1 earnings release and multiple investor presentations in 2026. Management targets adding $1.5 billion of incremental Adjusted EBITDA by 2030 measured against a 2024 baseline. Current Adjusted EBITDA was $308 million in 2026-Q1, up from $140 million in 2025-Q4, showing early progress. The trajectory is delivering with ongoing growth initiatives supporting this multi-year target.
“We maintain a favorable outlook for the longer-term demand fundamentals and remain focused on advancing our strategy to accelerate growth.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year
Breaks if: Segment Adjusted EBITDA falls significantly below $425 million in 2026
Continue to achieve full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA for Strategic Land Solutions segment at about $425 million as previously guided.
Management has stated this priority in 3 consecutive quarters including 2026-Q1. The Strategic Land Solutions segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of $193 million in 2026-Q1, up from $95 million in 2025-Q4, consistent with guidance. The company maintains the $425 million full year 2026 target, indicating delivery on this operational priority.
“The company continues to expect full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA for the segment to be approximately $425 million.”
“The company expects full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA for the segment to be approximately $425 million.”
“The company continues to expect full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA for the segment to be approximately $425 million.”
Breaks if: PE remains above 50 without earnings growth support