Arch Capital Group (ACGL)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-07-08
$102.01-0.82%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track ACGL free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Arch Capital grows underwriting income strongly, from $417M in 2025-Q1 to $728M in 2026-Q1. The company repurchased $798M in shares in 2025-Q4 and increased buyback authorization by $3B. Profit margins remain stable with a low PE of 8.85 and strong free cash flow yield of 16%.
Revenue is expected to decline about 11% next year, reflecting potential headwinds. Leadership changes and increased debt issuance may add uncertainty. If underwriting income growth stalls, the stock could suffer.
The price is about 47% below our fair value near $192, reflecting analyst expectations of roughly 11% revenue decline. Our view is more optimistic on underwriting income growth and capital returns.
Breaks if: preferred dividends are cut or suspended
Arch Capital Group is committed to maintaining dividends on its preferred shares.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: quarterly share repurchases fall below 500 million USD
Arch Capital Group has increased its share repurchase authorization by $3.0 billion.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Arch Capital increased its share repurchase authorization by $3.0 billion in 2026-Q1. In 2025-Q4, the company repurchased $798 million in shares. The recurring focus on share repurchases indicates a strong commitment to capital allocation, with substantial authorization increases and ongoing buybacks.
“Arch Capital announced an increase in its share repurchase program by $3.0 billion.”
“Share repurchases of $798 million.”
Breaks if: underwriting income falls below 600 million USD next year
Arch Capital Group is focusing on growing underwriting income across its segments.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Underwriting income grew from $417 million in 2025-Q1 to $728 million in 2026-Q1. The trajectory is delivering on the stated focus on underwriting income growth.
“CEO: 'Our financial performance was outstanding, demonstrating the value of our diversified platform.'”
“CEO: 'We delivered record-level results of operating income.'”
“CEO: 'Our third quarter results demonstrate the value of our diversified platform.'”