AES Corporation (AES)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-07-08
$14.63+0.07%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track AES free→Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
AES is growing with new renewable projects. It aims to add 3.2 GW in 2025. Power deals backlog is strong at 11.1 GW. Profit improved from a loss to $242 million in early 2026.
AES faces risks from expiring power contracts. Legal and capital issues could hurt profits. Management changes add uncertainty.
The price is about 57% below our fair value near $34. Analysts expect 5% revenue growth. We see value given AES’s growth and profit gains.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.65 billion in 2025
AES reaffirms its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2,650 to $2,850 million.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income improved from -$22 million in 2025-Q1 to $242 million in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the Adjusted EBITDA target. The trajectory is delivering on the reaffirmed guidance.
“Reaffirming 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million.”
“Reaffirming 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million.”
“Reaffirming 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million.”
“Initiating 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million.”
Breaks if: Significant management instability or failure to meet goals
Breaks if: PPA signings fall below 14 GW by end 2025
AES plans to sign 14-17 GW of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) from 2023 to 2025.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. PPA backlog of 11.1 GW, including 5 GW under construction, supports the trajectory towards the 14-17 GW target. Progress is consistent with management's stated goal.
“On track to sign a total of 14-17 GW for 2023 through 2025.”
“On track to sign a total of 14-17 GW for 2023 through 2025.”
“On track to sign a total of 14-17 GW for 2023 through 2025.”
“On track to achieve target of signing 14 to 17 GW in 2023 to 2025.”
Breaks if: New projects added fall below 3.2 GW in 2025
AES aims to add 3.2 GW of new renewable energy projects to its operational portfolio by the end of 2025.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $2,926 million in 2025-Q1 to $3,351 million in 2025-Q3, indicating progress towards the 3.2 GW target. The trajectory is delivering on the stated goal.
“On track to add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025.”
“On track to add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025.”
“On track to add 3.2 GW of new projects in operation in 2025.”
“Expecting to complete construction of 3.2 GW of new renewables in 2025.”