Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Amcor (AMCR)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.84-5.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.65 → 4.60 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMCR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS growth of 12-17% for fiscal 2026 | Amcor aims for 12-17% EPS growth in fiscal 2026 with guidance at $4.00 per share. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $3.98 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.83 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: EPS $4.00-$4.15. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 20260.83 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AMCR is an established packaging business with an acquisition-integration and earnings-growth thesis. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal has turned mildly favorable, but earnings quality is flagged as fragile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: AMCR is described as cheap versus peers, yet its premium versus peers is high and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not point to a large expectations gap.
Near-term results have been strong, including an August earnings beat, and fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS grew 13%, within management’s stated goal. Berry acquisition synergies are progressing ahead of initial expectations, but fiscal 2026 free cash flow fell short of guidance, partly due to transaction and integration costs; a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful risk.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued synergy delivery and improved cash-flow execution. Sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength at packaging peers could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For a 1-3 year view, AMCR’s operating progress supports an intact thesis, but the gap between strong earnings growth and weaker cash-flow delivery warrants attention. The valuation evidence is mixed, and the thesis hinges on execution and the sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We remain focused on what we can control, ensuring reliable supply, managing costs and pricing responsibly to offset inflation, and supporting our customers.” “We remain focused on what we can control, ensuring reliable supply, managing costs and pricing responsibly to offset inflation, and supporting our customers.”
Generate free cash flow of $1.8-$1.9 billion in fiscal 2026 | It targets $1.8-$1.9 billion free cash flow, showing strong cash generation. | Broken | FCF falls below $1.5 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $1.423B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: FCF $1.8-$1.9 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 20261,423,074,160 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Deliver $260 million synergy benefits from Berry acquisition in fiscal 2026 | The company plans $260 million synergy benefits from the Berry acquisition. | Intact | Synergy benefits fall significantly short of $260 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Synergy realization was in line with expectations, and we are on track to achieve our three-year $650 million target.” “Synergy realization came in ahead of plan, while performance in our non-core businesses improved substantially.” Revenue was $6.398 billion in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.62 → $4.60 · observed estimates
$24.03B → $24.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.62 | $24,034,286,012 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.62 | $24,034,286,012 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.62 | $24,034,286,012 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.62 | $24,034,286,012 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.62 | $24,034,286,012 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.62 | $24,034,286,012 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.47 | $23,727,608,356 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.47 | $23,727,608,356 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.47 | $23,727,608,356 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.61 | $23,907,082,080 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 8 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 7 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.46 | $23,596,086,685 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.64 | $24,216,144,196 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.65 | $24,242,506,714 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.65 | $24,259,038,807 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.65 | $24,241,506,714 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.65 | $24,241,473,339 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.65 | $24,232,767,792 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.63 | $24,232,801,309 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.63 | $24,232,801,309 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.66 | $24,279,900,895 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.66 | $24,297,429,466 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.66 | $24,297,429,466 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.66 | $24,297,429,466 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.66 | $24,297,429,466 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.65 | $24,281,072,324 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.65 | $24,281,072,324 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.62 | $24,351,334,169 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.63 | $24,262,898,985 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.63 | $24,262,898,985 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.63 | $24,262,898,985 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.62 | $24,225,172,386 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.62 | $24,225,172,386 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.62 | $24,225,172,386 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.62 | $24,225,172,386 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.62 | $24,225,172,386 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.62 | $24,202,479,053 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.62 | $24,171,118,919 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.60 | $24,147,298,987 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.60 | $24,147,298,987 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.60 | $24,147,298,987 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.60 | $24,147,298,987 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.60 | $24,147,298,987 | 6 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.