Amcor (AMCR)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.84-5.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMCR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMCR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Amcor plc (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The Company is not including the information contained on its website as part of, or incorporating it by reference into, this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of S…
Why it matters: Fiscal 2026 free cash flow was $1.303 billion, below the earlier $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion goal. A low transition-period result would keep cash generation under pressure.
Worry ifAmcor reports less than $1.3 billion of free cash flow for the six months ending December 31, 2026.
Less concerning ifAmcor reports at least $1.3 billion of free cash flow for the six months ending December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: Amcor reported about $240 million in synergies for fiscal 2026. More than $260 million would top its stated goal and build confidence in the longer plan.
Supportive ifAmcor reports more than $260 million in pre-tax Berry deal synergies for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAmcor reports $260 million or less in pre-tax Berry deal synergies for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Amcor set a $1.80 to $1.90 range for the six months ending December 31, 2026. A result above the top end would beat that range.
Supportive ifAmcor reports adjusted EPS above $1.90 for the six months ending December 31, 2026.
Worry ifAmcor reports adjusted EPS below $1.80 for the six months ending December 31, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $262 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,650 loss on $10,000 · 26.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.