Amcor (AMCR)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.15-1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMCR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMCR — legal / regulatory event — Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant
Dated 2026-08-14
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. On August 11, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Amcor plc (the “ Company ”), upon recommendation of the Audit Committee (the “ Committee ”) of the Board, (i) accepted notice of the resignation of PricewaterhouseCoopers AG, Switzerland (“ PwC Switzerland ”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm and (ii) appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, United States (“ PwC US ”) as the Company’s independent registered pu…
Why it matters: The guidance will show if Amcor can keep growing after the Berry deal.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance for the transition period is raised above $1.90.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance for the transition period is now below $1.80.
Why it matters: Slower sales growth may show weaker demand and problems with integration.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 70% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth remains above 70% year over year.
Why it matters: The Q4 earnings report will provide insights on performance and future guidance.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong growth metrics and positive guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows ongoing problems. Future guidance is lowered.
Why it matters: Amcor aims for $260 million in benefits. This will help growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifBenefits reported at or above $260 million by year-end.
Worry ifBenefits are below $200 million. This shows there may be integration issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $238 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,650 loss on $10,000 · 26.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The adjusted EPS guidance of $4.00 to $4.15 shows Amcor's growth potential. It shows the company can manage costs and keep its promises.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the adjusted EPS guidance is still $4.00 to $4.15 for the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts the adjusted EPS guidance to under $4.00.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would indicate struggles in achieving the EPS growth target.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS reported below $0.60.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EPS reported at or above $0.60.
Why it matters: Amcor aims for adjusted EPS of $4.00 to $4.15 for fiscal 2026. Meeting this target shows strong performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q4 comes in at or above $1.00, supporting the full-year guidance.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS is under $1.00. This shows problems in reaching the yearly goal.
Why it matters: Revising free cash flow guidance indicates challenges in cash generation. This could affect investment and growth plans.
Worry ifManagement confirms free cash flow guidance of $1.8 to $1.9 billion.
Less concerning ifManagement lowers free cash flow guidance below $1.8 billion.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows successful integration and market demand. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 70% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 60% year over year.
Why it matters: Confirming the adjusted EPS guidance of $4.00 to $4.15 shows Amcor's growth strength. It reflects the company's ability to manage costs and achieve synergy benefits.
Supportive ifAmcor says adjusted EPS guidance is between $4.00 and $4.15 for the next earnings call.
Worry ifGuidance is lowered to below $4.00. This shows challenges in meeting growth goals.
Why it matters: Free cash flow results will show if Amcor can make cash with rising costs.
Worry ifFree cash flow meets or exceeds $1.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow falls below $1.5 billion, highlighting cash generation issues.